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To: ms.smartest.person who wrote (1405)	9/13/2006 8:24:45 PM
From: ms.smartest.person	Respond to of 3198

NA-Marketletter - anyone familiar with this subscription? na-marketletter.com Nigel Freeman, Editor Ron Meisels, Contributor

To: ms.smartest.person who wrote (1405)	9/14/2006 5:37:04 PM
From: ms.smartest.person	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3198

&#8362 David Pescod's Late Edition September 14, 2006 SUNCOR ENERGY (T-SU) $75.30 -1.85 It’s not just the little guys that have been beaten up in this commodity correction we’ve gone through, it’s the big guys as well and some of them have been swacked big time! Take a look at the chart of Suncor, a company many people consider a pretty blue-chip investment. But if the price of oil goes down, you know which way this story is going as well. With an almost $25.00 correction, that means Suncor has had almost $10 billion worth of market cap erased (it has almost 1/2 billion shares outstanding). Now that’s a lot of money! There is a lot of questioning going on right now, by some wondering if this is just a correction, or as some argue, this is the end of the five to six year run in commodity prices. Either way, lots of people are scrambling to find anyone who seems to have some assurance of what to expect next, or someone who has a track record in predicting things in the past. One person that a lot of people have some confidence in is Ian Notley, the technician that’s been charting markets for many years and also predicting what next. If you look at the charts he’s produced here over the next two pages, you’ll see what he’s expecting next as he thinks we are in a secular trend for commodities that should last until 2010, at least within two years of 2010 anyway! His charts show the move up for oil over the last while, with its first leg up being a dramatic move from $9.35 to $33.00 from March of 1999 until November 2000, followed by a 50% correction. The next move going from $16.57 t0 $34.86 in March of 2003 followed by a 33% correction and then the most recent leg up moving from $23.27 in March of 2003 to $78.15. According to his charts, we are already two months into this current correction. If you look at his chart, he is expecting a bottom in this energy correction sometime in the first quarter of 2007 when the next leg up starts. Nice to hear that there is a next leg up starting, but according to his calculations, we could see a bottom at $45.00 or $50.00 before that next move up starts. Needless to say, if we see a $45.00 or $50.00 bottoming, many of these energy stocks that have corrected so much recently, might have more ugliness ahead of them. Once again, it’s one person’s opinion, but you will find his charts of interest! .... Charts .... (not able to cut & paste them) OUR COMMENT: We’ve talked about the concerns about natural gas for the last while, and today natural gas gets absolutely clobbered, because of a combination of no need for airconditioning in the U.S., no sign of hurricanes to disrupt production in the Gulf plus abnormally high inventory levels. But as far as these charts, Notley’s work shows you that the corrections we’ve had in the last three legs have lasted anywhere from two months to 12 months and while he may be predicting it could take until the first quarter of next year to see the bottom on this correction, it’s just one opinion. Take Clive Stockdale, one fellow we have followed for some time—his own prediction is that we could see oil as low as $55.00, but he expects the correction in oil to be over within a month. We prefer his view is correct. *If you wish to see the missing Notley's Charts ... and receive the Late Edition, just e-mail Debbie at debbie_lewis@canaccord.com*