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Strategies & Market Trends : Contrarian Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcyhuang who wrote (95)	9/15/2006 9:47:13 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 4080

Hi P, Re: JBL.............. I've owned it since around 1998, I believe. Lots of big cycles in that company and industry since that time. Each cycle has magnified the position by about 1.3, so if you get enough of those it starts to add up! :-) Don't know if you noticed but the last time I was 100% invested in JBL was back in '03. By contrast this year I managed to sell off a large portion of the portfolio when it seemed to get too close to its 3-5 year potential. It saved me a bit of bruising. I plan on re-deploying the surplus cash from that account to something new. Just haven't decided what/when. Here's a pretty graphic I create out of Value Line data. I call it my Speculation Index. I've maintained the data since 1982 in the traditional Value Line 1700 stocks but started in 2004 to gather the "Expanded" edition (or now, the Small - Mid Cap Edition). This one's for the Smaller Cap end of the market. Note the nice correlation of speculative activity to the NASDAQ's pattern. In this one I am using the larger caps in Value Line against the S&P500 Index. Again there's pretty good correlation. The best efforts are done in the "Bullish" and "Bearish" ranges. This latest one hasn't yet played itself out. Best regards, Tom