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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (32576)	9/14/2006 12:53:08 AM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95391

What happens if SEMI bookings decline in the next few months - as they might? how will THEY spin that? I am with you on this one - stocks will go ... at least we are prepared mentally

To: Gottfried who wrote (32576)	9/14/2006 1:17:03 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95391

Gottfried, I don't think we are going to see the "wild swings" in Bookings and Billings that we have in the past. <<What happens if SEMI bookings decline in the next few months - as they might? how will THEY spin that?>> If we look at the your chart of SIA chip sales sales versus semi-equip Bookings, note that in the past, when Bookings went down, SIA chip sales also took a nosedive. However, since the Jan 02 chip sales bottom, sales have been constantly climbing, and Bookings have been also rising, albeit with a couple of peaks and valleys. But at the moment, if we go forward the next couple of years as projected, with rising chip sales forcasted, semi-equip Bookings and Billings should continue their upward trend. As the chart shows, semi-equip Bookings bottomed in the fall of 01 and have been on an upward trend since then. We will probably have some "peaks and valleys" in the Bookings number, but I would expect them to vary even less than the past couple of cycles from 02 to the present. Your chart covers a period from 95 to the present, or 11+ years. During that time, 96, 98, and 01, Bookings bottoms occured close to chip sales bottoms. Since 01, chip sales have been rising, and are projected to rise for at least 2 more years. As long as that projected scenario holds true, IMO semi-equip Bookings and Billings will "follow along" upward. Don

To: Gottfried who wrote (32576)	9/14/2006 7:22:19 AM
From: niek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95391

re: I assume you mean the outlook for the stocks. What happens if SEMI bookings decline in the next few months - as they might? how will THEY spin that? Global chip equipment July sales +41.6 pct yr/yr Thu Sep 14, 2006 TOKYO, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Global sales of chip-making equipment in July jumped 41.6 percent from a year earlier, with demand expected to stay strong, an industry group said on Thursday. Sales of tools used to make semiconductors rose worldwide to $3.91 billion in July, with sales growing over 50 percent in South Korea and Taiwan, the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) said. Orders worldwide for chip equipment in July rose roughly 60 percent from a year earlier, SEAJ spokesman Toshihisa Kuno said. A rise in orders is good for revenues three to 6 months ahead, when the orders are usually filled. "Sales in Europe are down compared with 10 years ago, but otherwise the numbers are all very high," he said. Consumers' appetite for mobile phones, digital music players and flat screen TVs is fuelling semiconductor demand and prompting chip makers to ramp up production capacity and buy more chip-making equipment. The SEAJ compiles the monthly data with another industry group, California-based Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). Major producers of chip-making equipment include Advantest Corp., Applied Materials Inc. and Tokyo Electron Ltd..