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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (69831)	9/15/2006 12:47:19 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

What I love about this board is there seem to be about 3-4 angles to this story. Personally I think pass through of costs of real estate and energy take time to filter their way through the economy. We've only just begun even if home prices nationwide drop an average 20% and gas prices go back to $2. People here in Florida freaking out over tripling of RE taxes and insurance in three years. Everybody eventually pays for it, the consumer if he wants his goods and services and the retailer if he still wants to stay in business and make a profit. My good friend Grace says no one is worrying about inflation and rising costs of living. I disagree 1000% when it pertains to real working people. That is the number one topic in the editorials and letters to the editor of local papers near me.

To: russwinter who wrote (69831)	9/15/2006 12:53:49 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

The U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.9 percent in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. A 4.7 percent advance in petroleum prices more than offset a modest 0.1 percent decline in nonpetroleum prices. The price index of overall exports rose 0.4 percent in July following a 0.7 percent increase in June. Did you see that non petroleum prices actually dropped? What do you think happens to petroleum prices for August? What do you think happens to petroleum prices for September. What about non-petroleum prices? I expect BOTH petroleum and non petroleum prices to decline now for both August and September. Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (69831)	9/15/2006 12:56:10 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The Asians are raising prices. They are? Or they claim they will? There sure is little evidence of "are". Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (69831)	9/15/2006 3:02:10 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Inflation and deflation refer only to persistent trends. This idea that oil drops from $77 to $63 and it is "deflation" reveals a lack of basic understanding of the concept -- inflation and deflation are only meaningful when one looks beyond short term price movements in either direction. There is no need to waste time arguing about whether or not we have been experiencing inflation for the past 30 years -- we have and it is crystal clear. The argument that we are going to tip from inflation to deflation is entirely without any supporting data that I have ever seen. We have however had forces of dis-inflation that have restrained inflation and these forces are whithering. Cheap Chinese imports are a primary example. This whithering of dis-inflationary forces suggests that we are likely to experience an intensification of inflation in the future. But nowhere are there any signs of deflation.