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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (69838)	9/15/2006 1:47:56 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

'Given that k-cycles might last 16-22 years or longer forgive me for being off by a few years.' We seem to have continued periods that feel like a depression in certain sectors and regions of the US and the developed world. Don't we have to have more than a unified synchronized worldwide boom at the same time for "K'wave to occur? If I woke up Monday morning and the the NIKEII was at 40k the Dow at 25k, gold at 3k, JDSU at $150 and Danville home prices tripled it would be a different story. Let's keep this in perspective it was a credit boom of historic proportions the past three years. Lower interest rates in a slow deflation only prolong the boom as overvalued assets stay overvalued on extended multiples. It appears valuations on midwest RE and many big caps like Pfizer or Verizon are about right these days in a muddle along low rate environment. Without a major crack in our financial institutions solvency and much tighter lending standards there is zero chance of your scenario occurring IMHO