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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tyc:> who wrote (21177)	9/15/2006 9:49:00 PM
From: loantech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78419

I am scared of your charts! <g>

To: tyc:> who wrote (21177)	9/16/2006 12:33:47 PM
From: koan	Respond to of 78419

Right on tyke! Right on the money. In acting like whimps, and giving up our freedoms to our government out of unbrideled fear, we are giving Bin Laden exactly what he wanted and making a mockery of our democracy

To: tyc:> who wrote (21177)	9/16/2006 1:53:15 PM
From: loantech	Respond to of 78419

tyke I don't know if you saw this or not. Lot of charts but it appears as though we may be close to a bottom for the miners and gold. If I recall this guy has made some bearish calls that were timely also. grandich.com Only 5 daily readings in all that time, were slightly worse and those were the –19.35% seen on 9/20/94, the –19.30 on 8/31/98, the –18.73 on 4/15/05, the –18.17 on 9/08/93 and with three other at roughly –16.50 and they were (-16.67 on 4/28/04, -16.59 on 1/05/05 and –16.42 on 10/23/95). What’s more, this indicator is still moving down and with a flat day tomorrow could easily match the worst extremes ever seen.> In addition to the extreme oversold values on the technical gauges, we can comment that we believe the low 120 area should hold as major support for the XAU as the current zone in Gold between $570 and $585 should also hold as a bottom. To be clear, we are in a ‘fast market’ type climate, and in this environment, numbers can be over-run briefly and not really violated. For most technicians – for an index to break down, a certain percentage move beyond the break down point is required. In our view, the XAU is completing a large scale consolidation phase with the decline into the current lows. While we hear a lot of technicians squawking about a H&S top, what is on the chart is in all likelihood, no such thing. Real H&S Tops are far more compact, they take a manner of a few days to a few weeks at most, not 6 months. Beside that, all of the internal volume and momentum profiles are wrong for a H&S reversal top. In the thousands of hours of looking at charts over nearly 20 years plus, I have seen many consolidations temporarily look like H&S formations only to yield ground to a renewed uptrend at the very point where they “looked” like they were about to break down. The only examples I have found of very large scale H&S tops were in stocks that had gone up hundreds of percentage points for some years, and were hyperextended on the primary trend. In the case of Gold Stocks, they are nowhere close to residing in that domain, and that is another reason why we are NOT --- dealing with a H&S pattern. Instead, it is far more likely that a consolidation base is ending and that the XAU support which is rising at the 200 day lower band will hold as a demarcation line in the sand. Personally, I believe that today’s close, stands a good chance at marking the low with a rally toward 130 the most likely course ahead.>> The NEW TRIN, our medium term ARMS Index also continued to move deeper into oversold territory today ending north of 1.80, -- the kind of reading that invariably leads to a sharp snap-back recovery rally within fairly short order.>