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Strategies & Market Trends : Contrarian Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: jsabelko who wrote (175)9/16/2006 3:58:20 PM
From: Sultan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4080
 
A rational trader can make money by remaining calm and following his rules. Around him, the crowd chases rallies, hard with greed. It sells in to falling markets, squealing from pain and fear. All the while, the intelligent trader follows his rules. He may use a mechanical system or act as a discretionary trader, reading his markets and putting on trades. Either way, he follows his rules rather than his gut - that is his great advantage. A mature trader pulls money through the big hole in the efficient market theory, its presumption that investor and traders are rational human beings. Most people aren't; only winners are..

Dr. Alexander Elder in "Come into My Trading Room"



To: jsabelko who wrote (175)9/16/2006 5:22:12 PM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4080
 
Contrarian Investing and When to Sell?

For me this can also be when does one sell short?

You sell, or sell short, when a stock is overbought. I look for selling opportunities when stocks, sector indices and major indices are overbought and market breadth is weak on an advance. I look to sell when RSI(14) has neared 70. On Friday I shorted the SMH. There are plenty of negative divergences present and the NASDAQ and NDX both had closing doji's with RSI(14) nearing 70 in each case.

Take a look at some of the negative divergences present for the SMH:



You might also want to check sentiment on stocks or ETF's that you are considering buying or selling. Is there an unsually high amount of puts or calls for your stock. How about current analysts ratings.

Schaeffer's does a pretty good job on giving an overview.

schaeffersresearch.com

RtS



To: jsabelko who wrote (175)9/16/2006 9:45:57 PM
From: pcyhuang  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 4080
 
When to sell

For investment in sectors, I typically would buy the sector when all stocks' SAR are pointing downward and William%R are at an oversold level. I would hold all stocks in the sector until the portfolio as a whole has earned a decent percentage.

In individual equity, I would sell when the fundamentals have deteriorated substantially. Or if the stock has advanced a great deal, I would use trailing stops, as a percentage of market price to exit.

pcyhuang