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Strategies & Market Trends : Contrarian Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (190)	9/17/2006 9:41:10 AM
From: gcrispin	Respond to of 4080

"One of the best contrarian plays is finding companies that have fallen significantly with waves of huge volume sells, then patiently accumulating shares waiting for the eventual recovery. The key is to determine that a lower low was achieved on lower volume. This signals that everybody has thrown in the towel and some type of recovery will begin. The recovery generally takes several months (18 months is typical) (and even a few years) but IF the company survives, it is usually stronger w/ new management." Thanks for taking the time, EKS, to share your thoughts and give examples. Tax loss selling, in my opinion, can come into play, when everyone throws in the towel. FWIW, one indicator I like to watch is On Balance Volume. If the stock is retesting its low, but the on balance volume chart is show accumulation, I get interested.

To: E_K_S who wrote (190)	9/17/2006 9:41:14 PM
From: pcyhuang	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4080

EKS: Does Westwood One (WON) qualify? Based on our model in selecting timely contrarian investment, does WON qualify? Let's look at some data: Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-07) 1: 16.45 PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 1.34 Price/Sales (ttm): 1.15 Price/Book (mrq): 0.89 Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): -8.90% Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): -43.30% stockcharts.com secform4.com We have concluded that WON does not qualify for the following reasons: 1. Negative Qtrly Revenue and Earnings growth. 2. Lack of capitulated volume in recent days. 3. Lack of insiders buying since March 2005. pcyhuang