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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (69918)	9/18/2006 9:13:04 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

To say that there is overcapacity, oversupply, and underdemand is not the same as saying a "rising $CRB is evidence of deflation". You made a totally bogus statement and then tried to attribute it to me. I thought you had more class than that. How many times do I have to say "deflation is a decrease in the supply of money and credit". I have only been talking prices because everyone here thinks inflation is higher prices. Oddly enough prices have been falling a all kinds of things lately: Natural gas, oil, gasoline, prices at restaurants, copper, gold, silver, sugar, trucks, SUVs, etc. Of course orange juice is rising and even though it does not show up anywhere in stats, China is supposedly wants to hike prices on "stuff". I guess inflation = rising prices, except when they are falling, then we still have inflation. I will stick to my definition, but if one wants to talk prices then one can't have it both ways. The deflationary pressures right now are enormous. Please note: deflationary pressures does NOT mean deflation. Mish

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (69918)	9/18/2006 11:53:52 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

'That is the surest defination of overcapacity, oversupply, and underdemand that you could possibly find.' This comment was made in early 2004? You know a broken clock is right twice a day. We will have our deflation someday. I hope to live such a long, healthy and wonderful life to be around to see that.<g> Only a rapid up move in long term rates of several hundred basis points in a short period of time or a collapse in our banking system would make a deflationary downturn possible IMHO.