To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (211141 ) 9/19/2006 4:00:06 AM From: FJB Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 275872 Intel's Q3 Brightening By Jessica Davis Electronic News, 9/18/2006edn.com Microprocessor demand is on the upswing again, according to one analyst who is raising Q3 estimates for Intel Corp. While Intel itself has stopped providing mid-quarter updates, Lehman Brothers Managing Director Tim Luke said that he is expecting Q3 sales of $8.7 billion, up 9 percent sequentially, and earnings per share of 17 cents. That’s above the Wall Street firm’s previous estimates of a sales increase of 7.5 percent. Luke said that previous estimate was conservative given the potential estimates for 14 percent to 17 percent unit growth in Q3. “Following a challenging first half of 2006 characterized by modest demand and increased inventories, our checks suggest that MPU (microprocessor unit) demand trends have shown some seasonal improvements slightly ahead of our estimates ,” Luke said in a report. He left his estimates for Q4 and the calendar year unchanged due to uncertainty on visibility into future quarters and gross margin. “Intel’s record inventory days (about 103 days) in Q2, and our view that bulk — over 60 percent, by our estimate – of its $4.3B in inventory is “older-generation” products based on 90nm process technology remains a risk,” Luke said. “However, we believe Intel is making some progress on lowering its substantial inventory levels and currently do not expect a write-down although a modest write-down may remain a possibility.” The new Lehman Brothers assessment shows that while the channel has responded to Intel’s roll out of its new Conroe desktop chip, OEMs may be continuing to favor the price performance of the Pentium D platform. “The Pentium D dual core processors have a higher manufacturing cost and we estimate they constitute around a-third of Intel’s total inventory,” Luke said “However, Pentium D continues to produce Pentium D to retain market share given demand from OEMs. As a result, we note that although Intel inventory is likely to increase in Q3 in dollar terms, the inventory may reduce in unit terms as more dual core inventory gets built. We expect the mix to progressively shift towards Core 2 Duo (Conroe) towards the end of 2006.” But even as Intel is poised for higher revenues in Q3, AMD continues to gain share with key OEMs in the server space , Luke believes. Intel's market share has suffered this year, according to market research firm iSuppli. Luke expects Intel to use its upcoming Intel Developers Forum (IDF) to focus on server roadmaps, quad-core development, and updates on NAND and NOR.