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To: loantech who wrote (30)	9/19/2006 5:18:16 PM
From: Amark$p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5637

Mexico Lopez Obrador's Support May Have Peaked Oxford Analytica 09.19.06, 6:00 AM ET In Mexico, a "National Democratic Convention" (CND) appointed Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador "legitimate president" on Sept. 16. Lopez Obrador continues radicalizing his political strategy. However, his support probably has peaked, and the risk of serious confrontation has diminished. The CND aimed to reaffirm Lopez Obrador’s position as leader of a movement opposing the incoming administration of Felipe Calderon. By a show of hands, attendees voted to: --not recognize the Calderon government and try to impede its accession. --designate Lopez Obrador "legitimate president." --call for a plebiscite on a constitutional assembly. --meet again on March 21, 2007. Some of Lopez Obrador's supporters had advised him to avoid claiming to be president. However, Lopez Obrador claimed that he was the real winner of the election and had to act accordingly. Despite confrontation with the government, negotiations have taken place, helping avert violent clashes: --President Vicente Fox agreed not to lead independence day celebrations in Mexico City on Sept. 15. Lopez Obrador also decided not to lead a celebration in the capital. --Lopez Obrador ordered the lifting of the occupation of the Zocalo and the blockade of streets and avenues in the center of Mexico City to allow a traditional military parade on Sept. 16. The blockades will not be put back. Aside from support from the CND, Lopez Obrador was able to consolidate his leadership with the formation of a three-party coalition on Sept. 14, the Broad Progressive Front (FAP). Lopez Obrador's Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), the Labor Party (PT) and Convergencia originally formed an electoral coalition, the Alliance for the Welfare of All (CBT). The FAP signaled that the PT and Convergencia still support him. But Lopez Obrador's approach is unsustainable because it is contradictory: Lopez Obrador claims to be the legitimate president, but FAP members are participating in Congress and PRD governors are working with Calderon. The FAP may fragment, and some PRD legislators could openly break ranks. Lopez Obrador's appointment lacks legal legitimacy, and foreign governments have not recognized it. The only exception is Venezuela, with President Hugo Chavez on Sept. 14 arguing that the presidential election had not been clean but leaving open the possibility of recognizing Calderon. With a weak domestic position and no international support, Lopez Obrador may believe that the CND designation gives him a stronger negotiating position. PRD spokesman, Gerardo Fernandez, on Sept. 12 presented Calderon detailed proposals during a press conference: --A full vote recount should take place. --The winner would take office for a shortened three-year term. --During this period, new electoral legislation would be enacted. The spokesman stated that the offer was being made with Lopez Obrador's authorization. However, within hours senior PRD members condemned it. Neither Fox nor Calderon acknowledged it, and Lopez Obrador quietly dropped it. Lopez Obrador appears to be seeking either to force Calderon to resign or negotiate a shortened presidential term. He seems determined not to wait until the next presidential election in 2012. However, in coming weeks, Lopez Obrador faces another challenge. Gubernatorial elections in his home state of Tabasco on Oct. 15 will be a test of his political strength. He won Tabasco comfortably in the presidential contest. However, a recent GEA-ISA poll put the PRD candidate, Raul Ojeda, 11 points behind Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) contender Andres Granier. A PRD defeat would be perceived nationally as a serious setback for Lopez Obrador. With violence averted on Sept. 15-16, Calderon has ten weeks to negotiate a peaceful transition with the FAP. Additionally, he will continue efforts to forge a lasting coalition, offering cabinet positions in exchange for long-term legislative support. Two dangers loom if Lopez Obrador maintains his position and the FAP does not fragment: --FAP legislators could stop Calderon taking the oath before Congress. --Lopez Obrador has been radicalizing his agenda. He probably will instruct the FAP to obstruct further opening of the energy sector, liberalization of agricultural trade scheduled for 2008 under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and privatizations. Although the FAP lacks the seats needed to block legislation, this would leave the Calderon administration heavily dependent on a fragile PRI and other small parties. Lopez Obrador's designation as "legitimate president" may represent a peak in his support. FAP members will face increasing pressure to abandon his radical positions and contradictory strategy. Lopez Obrador apparently believes he has enough strength to reach an agreement with the government that would give him the chance of becoming president before 2012. However, his posturing creates dangers for the incoming Calderon administration in the form of a difficult, or contentious, investiture and medium-term difficulties approving structural reforms. To read an extended version of this article, log on to Oxford Analytica's Web site. Oxford Analytica is an independent strategic-consulting firm drawing on a network of more than 1,000 scholar experts at Oxford and other leading universities and research institutions around the world. For more information, please visit www.oxan.com. To find out how to subscribe to the firm's Daily Brief Service, click here

To: loantech who wrote (30)	9/19/2006 6:26:01 PM
From: LoneClone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5637

Obrador's supporters quietly abandoned their increasingly-unpopular protest in the major public square in Mexico City a few days ago. Although it was touch and go for a while, IMO at this point the gradual winding down of the protests is a measure of increasing political maturity rather than the opposite. LC

To: loantech who wrote (30)	9/19/2006 6:52:33 PM
From: Mr. Aloha	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5637

I think the fear of Mexican political turmoil is overblown. Once AMLO fades into nothingness, investors will regard Mexico as politcially safe again and repurchase the Mexican investments they've sold. IMO, AMLO in his actions is only assuring that he will never become president of Mexico. He has a dwindling following of radicals who will eventually abandon him when they see he has no power and no hopes of ever leading the country. Mexicans now have seen what a goon he is and are very happy he didn't win the election.