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To: Spekulatius who wrote (48478)	9/20/2006 10:01:05 AM
From: Paul Kern	Respond to of 118717

I don't have any position in TTF because I have been concerned that Thai manufacturing will be priced out of the export market.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (48478)	9/20/2006 10:29:34 PM
From: B Tate	Respond to of 118717

Yes, consumer credit is an issue. However it is no more or less than that of the US. Do you buy US securities? In fact the consumer debt load, as a percentage of yearly income, is lower than that of the US. The average middle class Thai earns between 20,000 and 35,000 baht per month. Few have major credit lines, the normal first time credit card holder has a limit of 100,000 baht or two times the amount of salary deposits, whichever is larger. Middle class Thais typically use direct deposit for salaries. This due to companies being able to save costs by using DD. This is normal throughout Asia. It is not unusual to see Thais withdrawing amounts of 500 or 1000 baht from cash machines. You would also be amazed at the number of large purchases, from cars to houses, that are done in CASH. The normal Thai is very thrifty and there is a lot of "mattress money" held by families. As for the "boom" in real estate in and around Bangkok, it does not equate to the recent boom in the US. Most single family homes sell for less than 1.5 MM baht and repayments are for terms of 10 years generally. (1.5MM baht equals roughly $39K USD). Apartments sell for 1.1MM - 1.3MM and terms are generally longer. An actual deal that I looked into (falang - foreigners, can own an apartment or condo) 2 bedroom, standard type apartment listed at 1.1MM baht. Downpayment 110,000 baht, monthly payments of approx. 6,000 baht for 15 years. The Boom is in the high end condo market that are generally targeted at foreign ownership and Thai elite. As for a 'slowing' economy it just ain't so. Until Thaksin started messing around in Mar this year, the GDP growth rate was 7.4%. After all the demonstrations of the spring, the invalidated election and the current coup, international economists still see a 4% growth this year.. amazing. This is in part due to international manufacturers using Thailand as a back up to China production. There are situations where Thailand is superior to the China based organizations. Wage pressures are less here than in either Malaysia or China. You have a highly educated (depending on your standards) workforce that is far from being maxed out. Thailand will never be a bigger economy than China, but it sure isn't going away either. Foreign investment has been increasing steadily until this years uncertainty. An interesting side light is the re-start of construction delayed during the melt down of '97. In 2001 there were lots of monuments to over building especially in the commercial area. Piles and heaps of what I call dead cement (unfinished high rise complexes, shopping centers) have been restarted and quite a few finished, open and occupied. In 2001 traveling from Don Muang (Bangkok Intl) to down town, a 30 minute taxi ride, you saw 20 - 25 unfinished and abandoned projects. Today on the same trip there is just one. Probably the largest project, Rachada Square - over 1MM sq foot high rise, has just been restarted within the last month. With the restructuring of the financial sector and implementation of solid loan policies this is good news. I am not promoting any Thai stock or ETF. Just trying to correct some wrong perceptions. As I've lived here for six years as an expat I've seen it, lived it and enjoy it. Sawadee bt