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Biotech / Medical : analysts and calls -- ML -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tom pope who wrote (211)	9/20/2006 12:35:26 PM
From: tom pope	Respond to of 238

Biomarin: Serono highlights Phenoptin at London conference BioMarin’s Phenoptin, in phase III development for the treatment of phenylketonuria (PKU), and partnered ex-US and ex-Japan with Serono, was highlighted today by Serono as one of its most promising pipeline candidates at the Merrill Lynch Global Pharmaceutical, Biotech & Medtech conference in London. Maintain BUY. Expecting European Filing in mid-2007 Serono expects a regulatory filing in Europe for Phenoptin in mid-2007 based on a package that will include the positive phase lll data in mild-moderate PKU announced in March ’06, data from an ongoing 22-week open-label extension study expected in 1Q07 and data from a diet liberalization study expected in early ‘07. Enrollment was completed in the open-label extension study and the ongoing diet study is assessing how much PKU patients can relax their strict phenylalanine-free diets while on phenoptin. We expect a U.S. filing in March 2007 and U.S. launch in early 2008. Serono to leverage Saizen sales force Commercially, Serono expects to leverage its Saizen (recombinant growth hormone) sales force to market Phenoptin. Assuming approval, we estimate peak sales of Phenoptin in Europe at about $125 mn, possibly more depending on pricing, which is comparable to our estimate in the U.S. We estimate that BioMarin would receive a high single digit royalty on Serono’s Phenoptin sales and a $45mn milestone payment for European filing/approval. BioMarin a top small-cap pick Biomarin continues to be one of our top small cap picks. Our price objective of $19 is based on a probability adjusted NPV analysis.