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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (70102)	9/22/2006 1:57:04 PM
From: jimmg	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

70%+ of Americans have no ability to hedge expected price hikes. They are in debt and living paycheck to paycheck. Their jobs are on shaky ground because manufacturing has been outsourced to Asia and low paying service jobs taken by illegal Mexican immigrants. The only thing holding up the economy over the past 5 years has been housing and that is now finished. Given this backdrop, I see no chance of accelerating inflation from here. Jobs will become more scarce, discretionary spending power will collapse and the savings rate will rise. Long term treasuries are speaking right now. Is anyone listening?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (70102)	9/22/2006 2:23:41 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Inflation runs up until the ability and/or willingness of the masses to take on more credit hits its limit. Since that by K-Cycle is a 60+ year time period by the time we get to the turning point, no one thinks anything other than inflation is possible. But once that credit limit is reached, the game is over. Prechter was 20+ years early on his calls because he ignored that simple fact. There was huge ability of consumers to take on more credit in the 80's and 90's. The same thing can not be said today and the negative savings rate accomplished by cash out refis on houses is the final straw. Mish