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Politics : Sioux Nation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (79893)	9/22/2006 7:21:23 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 361235

Read those TOD discussions he was part of. Start with these 2. theoildrum.com theoildrum.com

To: stockman_scott who wrote (79893)	9/22/2006 8:02:32 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 361235

$20 trillion bill to save world from fuel crisis September 20, 2006 By Stephen Voss London - The world needs to spend $1 trillion (R7.3 trillion) a year on alternative fuels, starting 20 years before the peak in conventional oil production, in order to mitigate fuel shortages, according to a US energy department study. Production peaks in Texas, the UK and Norway were examined as part of two studies for the department that advised on "crash course" efforts to cope with an eventual shortage of liquid fuels. The study, led by Robert Hirsch, didn't predict when world production would peak, although Hirsch's guess was "in the next five to 10 years". Conventional oil production peaked in Texas in 1972, North America in 1985, the UK in 1999 and Norway in 2001, and all of those peaks were "sharp and sudden", he said. To offset losses when output peaked, "unconventional oil" needed to be developed, including heavy oil, oil sands, coal and gas liquefaction, and enhanced oil recovery. Vehicle fuel efficiency would also need to be improved. Hirsch, a senior energy programme adviser at research and engineering firm Science Applications International, told the Oil and Money conference in London yesterday that the effort required was similar to "the race for the moon", and consumers could not rely on oil firms alone to make the right decisions and investments. "The character of this problem is so large and time-consuming and difficult that we've got to move away from business as usual and move to a crash programme." Governments were likely to take different approaches because some were less self-sufficient than others, he said. Oil company executives have typically downplayed the peak oil theory, saying that there are plenty of resources in the ground. But executives have noted shortages of equipment and skilled labour, and restricted access to resources in some countries. "It's not that it's not out there, but converting it from a resource to a reserve and a reserve to production capacity is a very slow process," Sadad Ibrahim al-Husseini, retired executive vice-president at Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest oil exporter, told reporters at the conference. Using the lower 48 states of the US as a model, Hirsch's study based calculations on a 2 percent annual decline in world production once the peak was reached, leading to a large global shortage 20 years later. Actual declines may well prove to be quicker, he said. The $1 trillion a year over 20 years includes research into improving the efficiency of car engines and fuels. Excluded from Hirsch's analysis was nuclear and wind power because they produce electricity, which wouldn't directly replace the loss of liquid fuels, such as petrol. Also excluded were hydrogen fuel cells and biomass, because the technology was not ready or not economical, he said. "It's a finite resource; it's not going to go on forever," al-Husseini said. "Even 20 years is not that far down the line, so the prudent thing would be not to wait." - Bloomberg busrep.co.za