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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (5546)	9/26/2006 12:20:01 AM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

The Street is fawning over Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX - News) (ML downgraded SNDK because of potentially sharp correction of memory pricing they completely contradict each others) IMHO) Analysts Fawning Over Lam Research Monday September 25, 2:36 pm ET Eric Savitz (Barron's) submits: The Street is fawning over Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX - News) today. CIBC raised its rating on the stock to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform; both J.P. Morgan and Credit Suisse raised their earnings estimates. The big driver of the stock seems to be memory chip companies adding capacity. Not exactly sure why all this research happened to hit today, but it certainly has been good for the stock. Anyway, here’s what the analysts are saying: ADVERTISEMENT click here * Jay Deahna, J.P. Morgan: Contrary to stated out quarter guidance from the July earnings season, our research suggests that an improving order outlook from memory customers is likely to drive up orders sequentially for Lam Research in [the fourth quarter] assuming the company doesn’t exceed its third quarter guidance by too much…We see the improving [calendar second half 2006] outlook from memory customers as a major potential catalyst for LRCS stock price outperformance after underperforming sicne management suggested in the July earnings season that orders could be down in [the fourth quarter.]…Raising our [fourth quarter] order forecast from down 6% ($646 million) to up 5% ($723 million.) We are also raising our fiscal 2007 [pro forma] EPS estimate to $4.36 form $4.09. Rating: Overweight; price target, $54. * Satya Kumar, Credit Suisse: We think the story is solidly on track; we think the market is wrong and way too pessimistic on LRCX…three relevant capex trends to watch for 2007 are (1) Samsung’s capex shift from NAND to DRAM…(2) Increased Taiwan DRAM spend…(3) Potential capex decline at a major U.S. [microprocessor] customer - LRCX’s lack of exposure here is a relative plus…Increasing calendar 2007 revneue estimate to $2.17 billion, from $2 billion, and EPS estimate to $3.30 a share from $3.13. Rated outpeform; price target, $49. * Gary Hsueh, CIBC World Markets: Raised rating to sector outperform from sector perform. Channel checks suggest (1) near term upside to Street as shipments continue to ramp to set record levels in March 2007 on share gains at Taiwan DRAM makers; and (2) comemrcial traction in new ‘wet clean biz’ with a repeat order from TSMC (NYSE: TSM - News). Calendar 2007 estimate jumps to $3.62 from $3.16. Price target to $52 from $40. Lam shares today have jumped $3.25 to $44.61.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (5546)	9/30/2006 4:29:16 PM
From: Jong Hyun Yoo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

Checks with my industry contacts suggest possible reduction of order over next 2 Q's. Also some talk of hiring freeze at AMAT and other equipment companies are surfacing. In my opinion, actual magnitude of the booking decline will be tied closely to the general economic slowdown in the US in the winter season. If the chip inventories they are building ahead of the holiday is season is depleted reasonably well, then depth of the downturn will be shallow and we may resume order growth by the early spring of 2007. If there is a glut of chip inventory due to poor consumer spending, reduction in the booking could last longer. I am now becoming more interested in weighing more heavily in this sector for my investment again. I will be using pullbacks in this sector to again build my position. LRCX and NVLS will be the focus of my buying. I will also nibble at AMAT. I don't know much the plateauing in order pattern (or slowdown) has been already discounted in the share price. But I am definitely becoming more interested as time to buy these shares are during the downturn period. Previously LRCX has been my favorite of the sector. However, I am going to focus on NVLS as my top pick for the sector for next upturn. I still like LRCX but I see greater percentage upside for NVLS as it improves on the op ex metrics and gross margin. I would be even more bullish on NVLS if it can just exit the CMP and Strip business and focus on the core business of PVD, CVD, and ECP. I am currently leading a small social investment group at www.investorhives.com. You can join my discussion group (called FilthyRich) if you are interested in discussing the semi-equipment investment ideas. I will visit this thread from time to time. JHY