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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimbaBear who wrote (24882)	9/26/2006 5:46:36 PM
From: TheStockFairy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78644

GMR---- TCE rates look like they are rolling over and the world is producing a crapload more boats currently to soak up the increased TCE rates. On top of it, it seems the geopolitical situation is at least somewhat not so crazy so the spot rates are falling, like 25% from quarter to quarter. Combine that with better maintenence programs for the boats, all of the refineries in the US operating at over 90% after the hurricanes, US oil demand remaining somewhat stable and you get a picture that TCE rates are going to fall 50% or more from here. Hence the big dividend and the big drop in prices. Just my 2 cents and I could be waaaaay wrong because I don't know what I'm doing :).

To: TimbaBear who wrote (24882)	10/5/2006 1:02:57 PM
From: - with a K	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78644

Timba, I started a position in OVTI today. I've been eyeing it for a while. Per S&P, cash flow per share and earnings have risen steadily the last 5 years. Margins and ROE are healthy. Per First Call, 10 analysts have OVTI as a "hold," telling me there could be upgrades as they execute in the near future. Using consensus estimates of $1.40 for next year but a more conservative growth estimate of 13% vs. 20% for 5 years (First Call), I see a compelling valuation: Company: OVTI Date: 10/5/06 Next year's low expected earnings: $1.40 EPS growth rate used for estimate: 13% P/E maximum used for estimate: 8.5 Graham Fair Value: $34.00 Current Price: $15.80 $ difference: $18.20 Percent Growth to Fair Value: 115.21% A 4-year weekly chart shows some wild seasonal swings. Looks to me like it is at seasonal support and should rise. Note the steady rise in earnings. (Using my broker's chart tool I can draw a straight line to show support going back to late 2003 but don't have a way to post that here.) News: New Casualty List Includes Valero and OmniVision: John Dorfman By John Dorfman Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Buying stocks of good companies when they are down is a time-tested investment method. In this column, I try to incorporate that approach into a quarterly Casualty List. It contains stocks that have been roughed up in the latest quarter, and that I think have strong potential for a comeback... New Selections In the third quarter of this year, 28 stocks with a market value of at least $500 million were down 20 percent or more. I suggest that bottom fishers strongly consider four of them: OmniVision Technologies Inc., Komag Inc., Valero Energy Corp. and Commercial Metals Co. OmniVision (OVTI), with headquarters in Sunnyvale, California, makes chips used for imaging in computers, cell phones, digital cameras and other devices. Its shares fell 32 percent in the three months through Sept. 30. Investors didn't like the departure of Raymond Wu, one of the company's co-founders. And they didn't like the company's projection of results for the second fiscal quarter (ending in October). The company forecast earnings of 26 cents to 34 cents per share, compared with analysts' expectations of 42 cents. The beaten-up stock now sells for 9 times the past four quarters' earnings and 11 times estimated earnings for this fiscal year. To me that's temptingly cheap for a company that earned stockholders a 22 percent return on their equity last fiscal year. OmniVision didn't use debt to goose the return on equity, as many companies do. Debt is less than 1 percent of equity. ********************************* SUNNYVALE, Calif. and CHIBA, Japan, Oct. 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- OmniVision Technologies, Inc. (OVTI), a leading independent supplier of CMOS CameraChip(TM) image sensors for high-volume applications, today launched its sixth generation 1.3 megapixel CameraChip sensor. Featuring a 2-micron pixel and 1/5-inch optical format, the OV9660 enables a 25 percent thinner camera module, meeting the requirements of ultra slim handset designs. Additionally, the smaller module size is especially attractive to handset makers because it allows a drop-in upgrade from VGA to 1.3 megapixels, thereby extending the life of existing VGA camera phone designs. "Handset makers continue to design thinner and more compact camera phones to support consumer demand for ultra-slim handsets," said Jess Lee, Vice President for Mainstream Products at OmniVision. "Bringing our proven OmniPixel2(TM) technology to market in the industry's smallest format gives handset designers more options for camera placement, opening up even more possibilities for small form factor camera phone designs."** The small form factor is also generating considerable interest from ultra portable laptop manufacturers who, due to size constraints, have been limited to using only VGA resolution cameras. The introduction of the OV9660 now allows these ultra portable laptop makers to upgrade to 1.3 megapixel cameras without the need for a costly system redesign.