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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (9725)	9/28/2006 12:50:14 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217688

I don't think the US based natural gas crash is over yet. There may have been some short covering today because of contract expiration / end of month or quarter. Sort of like the TV news crew in Miami who told to go to a shopping mall where there had been a robbery and a gunfight. They got there quickly, went in a Mall entrance, and could smell the intense odor of gunpowder - the producer says "Uh, I don't think they are finished yet ... " and the crew could hear the gunfire while they ran back to their truck to wait. **** I am not buying any NG stock yet. One my short to buy list would be CHK, with 80% of 2007 production hedged at $9.45. One of the few companies that knows how and when to hedge. Boy, do they ever look smart right now... Unfortunately, lots of people know about this, so we may not get a huge bargain. XEC, which has NO HEDGES, if it is being given away. I don't think it has bottomed yet. Peyto CA:PEY.un , after it drops some more and Vermillion CA:VET.un , if it gets dragged down with every thing else. I will look at ATPG also, which has North Sea, Gulf of Mexico oil, and some British NG. * Two very speculative holdings 1) an Argentina ONSHORE oil development play, Petoliferias, CA:PDP and New Guinea plus New Zeland AEN. *** If the US NG crunch gets worse, it will drag down companies that are diversified outside the US, like Vermillion and ATPG, and even companies with operations entirely outside the US.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (9725)	9/28/2006 1:23:58 AM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 217688

More info on CHK - Message 22856368 I want to see Wall Street take a price for NG around $4.00 or so, and project it out ten years, and then ignore the great hedges that CHK has because they won't last forever, and really knock the stock price down, then have some mindless hedgies short the stock and buy some of the debt, or just short CHK on a momentum basis. This will take some warm weather until at least early November. Then I want to consider buying... Sort of like Gordon Brown sold a bunch of the UK's gold reserve over the summer....I bought a little physical gold around $290 or so.