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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (24905)	9/28/2006 7:35:01 PM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78667

Hello E_K_S 1) What do you feel is a reasonable "Free Cash Flow" ? Free Cash Flow that if the company over the next 12 months just did exactly what it did over the last 12 months would yield me at least 17% when compared to current stock price. For example if a company had FCF of the equivalent of $11.00/share and was selling for $37.00/share then it would have a cash flow yield of 11/37 = 29.7% if they just did in the next year what they did last year. I would be very interested in looking more deeply at a situation like that to see if I could determine the likelihood of a repeat. On the other hand if the cash flow were negative, I wouldn't spend any more time on it. I know I pass up a lot of "opportunities" that way, but there are lots of folks brighter than me out there and they seem to do quite well by looking more deeply for catalysts. I'm a wimp and a bad guesser about what might happen, so I eliminate growth projections and try to find situations priced such that if they just rinse and repeat I ought to benefit as an owner. I didn't mean to diss any company. Timba

To: E_K_S who wrote (24905)	12/15/2006 11:15:00 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78667

Hedged 25% of my DRYs stock purchased in June 2006 by selling the June 2007 $17.50 calls. The May-June period is typically the low seasonal period in the cycle but 2007 may be different this time. Stock has run from $9 to $16 and currently pays a 5% dividend. DRYS management recently purchased shares in the open market during November 2006 and now control 12.2 million shares (34.3% of total shares outstanding). I continue to hold shares in Ship Finance International Ltd. (SFL) which are up over 35%. finance.yahoo.com SFL pays a higher dividend has diversified into financing offshore drilling rigs and has a better balance sheet and PE than DRYs. I plan to hedge my SFL shares once it hits $25/shares as this is my fair value target. ================================================ Santa Clause rally is supposed to start next week (and then the January effect!). investopedia.com I will be looking to locking in profits during this period and into January 2007. EKS