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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (70545)	9/28/2006 12:42:28 PM
From: Paul Kern	Respond to of 110194

You're right> he didn't call it a POS just "worse than a mattress." i wonder if Fleck's short fund has even made money at all over the past ten years. if he is so smart why doesn't he publish his fund's historical results on his website? somebody who bought an SPX index fund in 1996, when Fleck started writing his bearish stuff, and subsequently went to sleep for a decade, has doubled his money. what has Fleck done? did his short fund double investors' money after fees over that period? does all this mean the market can't tank? of course not. i just don't think whatever Fleck says about it carries much weight. i think the opinions of people like Van Den Berg, who have the results and show them, carry much more weight. here's an example of a bear fund and what it's done over the last decade. BEARX turned an investor's $9 into $6; worse than a mattress! yeah, as long as you ignore the PREVIOUS 5 years where they had a 50% drawdown. overall, based on that chart i showed, it looks like $9 in BEARX turned into $6 over the past decade. of course, when you add in inflation it is even worse in real terms.