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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: CapitalistHogg™ who wrote (72248)9/28/2006 3:59:17 PM
From: t4texas  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206317
 
you will do well after the cad breaks support. that seems to be about .8870 or .8880 for now. the cad has work to do.



To: CapitalistHogg™ who wrote (72248)9/28/2006 4:37:52 PM
From: LoneClone  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206317
 
I am talking strictly long term, with a time span of years.

You may well profit on a countertrend right now. According to people a lot smarter than me, the US dollar appears to be being propped up through the elections, but current levels are not sustainable in the long term.

As to exactly which commodity price levels are required to maintain the loonie against the United Statian dollar, that's outside my area of expertise.

I'm sticking with macro-economic trends for my long term call.

EDIT: Sorry got called away. But the real key is that we have our fiscal house in the best shape of the advanced economies.

LC



To: CapitalistHogg™ who wrote (72248)9/28/2006 6:13:48 PM
From: 8bits  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206317
 
"DISCLAIMER: In case you hadn't guessed I'm short the CAD"

Have you taken all the factors into play..? Interest rate differentials, Current account status, Budget Surplus/Deficit (Canada has a federal government and current account surplus..)


Global current account status for 2005:

cia.gov

Discussion of Canadian imports/exports:

statcan.ca

A pretty big part of their exports is automobile related, note:

"Exports shrank $2.0 billion to $112.5 billion while imports rose $1.8 billion to a record $99.7 billion.

The value of energy product exports improved somewhat in the second quarter, following a drop of $4.5 billion in the previous quarter. While prices of natural gas continued to diminish, prices of crude petroleum rose by more than 20% during the quarter, notably due to much higher prices for heavy crude petroleum, which accounted for roughly two-thirds of the total export volume.

Lower exports of cars during the second quarter resulted in a $1.7 billion reduction in exports of automotive products. This was the lowest level of exports for this group of products since 1998.

Machinery and equipment exports fell $0.8 billion during the quarter, the drop being spread among most of the components, while forestry products continued their downward trend which started two years ago. These decreases were partly offset by an improved performance for industrial goods, notably metal and alloys products.

Imports of energy products rose $1.8 billion in the second quarter. Crude petroleum accounted for most of the rise as both prices and volumes went up while petroleum and coal products also registered a significant increase."

Canadian Federal Budget
fin.gc.ca

Interest Rates:

bankofcanada.ca

I don't play currencies myself, too many variables.