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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (70580)	9/28/2006 9:23:12 PM
From: bart13	Respond to of 110194

It is good to see my views properly presented for a change Especially in regards to Japan I've been reading your blog for many months (7+?), here for a month or two -- and although its likely due to my own shortcomings, that's the first time I recall reading your full and broad viewpoint on Japan and the deflation. I'm going to have to update my BoJ chart with the credit data I've had for months, and take another look. Good link too, thanks.

To: mishedlo who wrote (70580)	9/28/2006 11:40:19 PM
From: bart13	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I only had credit data from the BoJ going back to 1980, but hopefully its sufficient. The numbers I used were actual as opposed to book value but the relationships were within +/- 2% of each other since 1990. Obviously there's no question that credit fell off a cliff in 1989 or so and was running at negative growth rates for most of the period since then to date. But there also seems to be a correlation starting in '98 or so between big spikes up or down in current account balance (light gray) and monetary base (lime green) and credit growth or contraction (dotted black line), after a lag. How do you tie that in with your views about credit growth or stimulation and deflation? I'm simply trying to understand your full view and just plain don't know enough of it to know how much we agree or not.