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To: RetiredNow who wrote (71169)	9/30/2006 12:21:12 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 77400

Those are probably returns without dividends reinvested which make the total return higher. I agree with the bull market statement. Also, the broadly diversified NYSE is in a secular bull mode... The trouble was in large cap growth and telecom... probably good sectors to consider going forward from here due to their huge declines. More charts here Message 22864384

To: RetiredNow who wrote (71169)	9/30/2006 12:49:33 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 77400

oh mindmeld, we are in the middle of a secular bear and you chose to pick the bottom of a cyclical bear in the middle of the secular bear to make a bullish argument which always works. Remember, average market returns are 10% per year. thats PER YEAR. We are barely above where we were trading on most major indices in 2000, 6 years ago. Even last night on CNBC the roundtable was discussing the great qtr we've had in the indices since June 30. The first comment from the panel was "yeah but you need a crash to get the kind of quarter we had this quarter- and we did have a crash Apr-June". True enough. Here's a pretty good commentary that describes a secular bear imho. Are We in the Belly of a Bear? Interestingly, secular bear markets generally end at about the same level they began, but with far lower P/E ratios. During the typical 10- to 15-year bear market cycle, there can be violent downswings -- like those we experienced from 2000 to 2002 -- followed by rapid climbs -- like we've seen the past few years. Are we still in the belly of the bear? Easterling marks 1999 as the final year of the last secular bull market and the beginning of the current secular bear market. That puts us a little more than 6 years into the cycle. As of June 30, the P/E for the S&P 500 stood at 17.5 -- that's slightly above the long-term average of 16, and well above the historical bear market bottom of 8 to 12. I'd certainly like to think we're at the beginning of the next secular bull market, but relatively high P/Es, rising interest rates, and signs of increasing inflation lead me to believe we're still in the belly of the bear. fool.com