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Politics : GOPwinger Lies/Distortions/Omissions/Perversions of Truth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (79316)	10/1/2006 7:26:00 PM
From: puborectalis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 173976

Growth in U.S. Slows to `Stall Speed,' Raising Recession Risk By Rich Miller Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy has slowed more dramatically than most economists expected just a few weeks ago, leaving it more vulnerable to a recession. Forecasters at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and AllianceBernstein Holding LP in New York have cut their growth estimates for the just-ended third quarter to an annual rate of 2 percent or less. They don't foresee much, if any, improvement in the fourth quarter: Auto-production cuts and slumping home sales are likely to overwhelm any boost the economy gets from lower gasoline prices, they say. ``We're decelerating fairly significantly,'' says Peter Hooper, a former Federal Reserve official who's now chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. He sees annual growth below 2 percent in the second half. The economy expanded at a 2.6 percent rate in the second quarter and 5.6 percent in the first. Growth is getting closer to what Macroeconomic Advisers LLP President Chris Varvares describes as the ``stall speed,'' where an unexpected shock such as a terrorist strike or a hurricane might be enough to trigger a recession. A mathematical model of the economy developed by Federal Reserve economist Jonathan Wright puts the chances of a recession over the next year at about 40 percent. With recession risks rising, some Fed officials are becoming uneasy about the outlook. While they remain on guard against the dangers of higher inflation, they say they're also paying more attention to the threats to growth.