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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Benny-Rubin who wrote (6742)	10/11/2006 12:11:38 PM
From: Drygulch Dan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26062

Something to keep an eye on, from C Parker this AM: 12z models are coming out now, and more of them are picking-up on the feature just E-NE of Barbados. Most models agree on a WNW-NW track thru tomorrow or Fri13, with a LO lying near or S of VirginIslands / PuertoRico Fri13. Beyond this, there remains disagreement...with some models continuing the WNW-NW track, and other keeping this system in the Caribbean, moving W or even WSW. Intensity...we could easily have a Tropical Depression later today or tomorrow, and a Tropical Storm tomorrow night or Fri13, though intensity should not exceed about 40 kts thru Fri13. It remains possible nothing develops, but gradual development seems more likely this morning...I'd now give it a 60% chance of getting to a named Tropical Storm by Fri13. Barbados is now reporting W@10, so there may be a closed LO. Visible satellite imagery confirms my earlier thought that rotation appears to be around a point at 14.5N / 56.5W...but there's now little squall activity surrounding that point...all the squalls lie 12.5N-15N from 57W-60W. Going forward...S part of area should see mild weather, with light winds & drier conditions...but the farther N you lie in Windwards, the higher your risk for seeing some significant squalls, and squalls are very likely in Leewards / VirginIslands / PuertoRico, but maybe not DomRep. Pressure gradient is not tight, so winds should be fairly mild except in squalls, though they could be stronger is a more organized Tropical LO develops.