Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (204934)	10/2/2006 7:13:40 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Did you give any thought to my question at the end of the post? Namely, whether you were aware of any situation where a guerrilla war that had strong support among the people nevertheless failed? I don't know of any but I don't make a study of such things. The author mentioned the IRA in Northern Ireland but it seems to me that this story isn't over yet. But the population seems less strongly religious so not so keen to fight over who's got the direct line to God, and the government is less pig-headedly biased against Catholics, so there's both less powder and less tinder for conflagration. But that's a side issue. From what I've been reading in blogs about Iraq, the population isn't keen on Al Qaeda, the violence is ethnic, tribal, and of long standing. People in Iraq belong to tribes or clans which stick together. You can tell who they are by their names and where they are from (come to think of it, you could probably do the same in Ireland but those ties aren't as strong as they once were. But if you met a man named Brendan, he'd likely be a different religion than a man named McDonald.) Anyway, if you think it all boils down to Al Qaeda, I think you're wrong. Some of it's Al Qaeda, some of it (most of it) is tribe against tribe, clan against clan, and Shi'a vs. Sunni. Muslim Brotherhood is Sunni, Islamic Revolution is Shi'a. Ba'aths are Sunni, Sistani and al Sadr are Shi'a. Anbar Province, site of Fallujah and Ramadi, extreme west province in Iraq, is Sunni, run by the Dulaim tribe, and Al Quada. Al Sadr controls Sadr City, in Baghdad. Salam Pax talks about visiting Kadhimiya, a Shi'a province in Baghdad, and his fears because his name is Sunni. >>Kadhimiya is set up these days like a fortress. Entrances are tightly controlled, no unknown cars get in and they basically had their own secret police there; when I lingered too long with my camera in front of the shrine I was quickly called inside and a security guard demanded IDs and wanted to look through the film, I thanked heavens again for the NUJ card. So people I give you the future of Baghdad. Districts will become tightly controlled fortresses that are ethnically/religiously homogeneous. Outsiders are only let in after being inspected and checked. I really want to go back to Kadhimiya but only after I get my fake Shia ID. Having trouble getting into a Shia district doesn’t mean that I am OK in Sunni areas. Sunni areas are even tougher. To start with they have their own set of fashion rules. There is a whole What Not To Wear spin-off for the west of Baghdad and the prize isn’t just a special wardrobe but you get to stay alive. Let me give you a quick run down. Let’s look at men’s fashions first. Things that can get you killed include: Shorts A goatee beard Jeans that are a bit tight or are too fashionably “distressed” Colourful shirts Hair Gel!!! A necklace A Shia name (anything that has anything to do with Imam Hussein or a member of his family)<< justzipit.blogspot.com I believe him. Baghdad is being divided into fortresses on ethnic and religious lines. This isn't exactly a civil war, if they're willing to live and let live as long as you don't come onto their turf, then that is a solution for ethnic and religious violence that is all too familiar. Devolution of nations into tribes.