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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dale Baker who wrote (29681)10/3/2006 7:50:03 PM
From: Dale Baker  Respond to of 540795
 
A Backlash Against Bickering

By E. J. Dionne Jr.
Tuesday, October 3, 2006; A17

CONCORD, N.H. -- Republicans have been scratching their heads in frustration. Why has a relatively good economy not been helping either President Bush's approval ratings or their party's electoral cause?

One answer is that economic growth is helping people at the top far more than anyone else. Another explanation can be discovered here and in other well-functioning states around the country: To the extent that voters are expressing gratitude this year, they are saying thanks to their governors. That does not stop them from yelling irately at Washington, D.C.

Consider the latest WMUR Granite State Poll by the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center. Asked the classic question about whether "things in New Hampshire" were going in "the right direction" or were "seriously off on the wrong track," an astonishing 79 percent saw their state moving the right way; only 14 percent saw it on the wrong track.

But when asked exactly the same question about how their country was doing, according to findings released yesterday, only 34 percent of New Hampshire residents said "the right direction"; 56 percent said "the wrong track."

That is good news for Gov. John Lynch, a Democrat who leads his Republican opponent, Jim Coburn, by a margin of 69 to 14 percent in the latest survey. It is bad news for Bush, whose approval rating in New Hampshire is 36 percent.

Lynch is among a cadre of moderate Democratic governors around the country who find themselves in commanding positions -- even outside Democratic-trending New England. Among them: Kathleen Sebelius in Kansas, Dave Freudenthal in Wyoming, Janet Napolitano in Arizona and Brad Henry in Oklahoma.

For his part, Lynch can hardly utter a sentence without including the word "bipartisan." He prides himself on having worked well with a Republican legislature and speaks with amazement at how Washington has become a place of "ongoing partisan bickering."

It may be no accident that Lynch's ratings are high while Bush's are low. Nick Clemons, the executive director of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, sees voters here consciously contrasting the peaceable political kingdom their state has become with what's happening several hundred miles to the south. "Washington," he says, "is the foil for New Hampshire."

The success of Democratic governors such as Lynch (and, for that matter, of that rescripted and now-moderate Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger in California) also reflects a default by national Republicans on domestic issues.

The president's relentless focus on terrorism, combined with growing disenchantment with his Iraq policies, pushes voters to seek leadership from state and local politicians on issues such as education and health care.

Tom Rath, one of the state's most experienced Republican power brokers, loyally insists that Bush is still "personally" liked here. But Rath sees Iraq taking a huge toll on the president, partly because so many in New Hampshire's National Guard have served there and "the repetitious call-ups are disruptive to people's lives."

Rath recently announced his support for Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. His rationale is surprisingly similar to the explanations that Democrats give for the popularity of governors such as Lynch or Sebelius: Voters are in a mood for less "doctrinaire" politicians who can fix things.

Of the federal government, Rath said: "There's a feeling that this great big thing doesn't work very well." He said Republicans need to win back voters who feel they gave "the keys to the car" to their party only to have it driven "into the back of the garage." Rath sees Romney as the GOP's repairman.

If New Hampshire offers a model for a new wave of moderate Democrats, it is also a test case for how badly Bush -- and, now, the scandal surrounding former representative Mark Foley -- will wound incumbent Republican House members.

Politicians in both parties here see Rep. Jeb Bradley as having a substantial advantage over Carol Shea-Porter, an underfunded antiwar Democrat, and Rep. Charles Bass, to whom the words "nice guy" cling like a second title, leading his Democratic foe, Paul Hodes.

But Hodes, an indefatigable campaigner, has advertised heavily in an effort to demonstrate Bass's support for Bush's Iraq policies. The fact that Bass is stressing his "independence" and responded immediately with advertising of his own attacking Hodes on Iraq suggests that Republicans know how vulnerable the incumbent could become if Hodes succeeds in yoking Bass to Bush. In principle, Bradley could face the same problem.

The irony is that Bush has fostered a backlash against himself, against ideology and against partisanship that, as a former governor, he should have seen coming.



To: Dale Baker who wrote (29681)10/9/2006 11:00:51 AM
From: Win Smith  Respond to of 540795
 
Ok, I'm a little late getting back to this, and I shouldn't complain about a conservative columnist daring to deviate from the party line. But I got to take issue with a couple things. First there's this passing glibness:

The book does not demonstrate that the president is in a state of denial. His almost exclusive and increasingly grating reliance on the rhetoric of unwavering resolve may be mistaken. It certainly has undermined his reputation as a realist. But he believes a president must be "the calcium in the backbone" of the nation, so the resolute face that he thinks he must show the nation does not preclude private anguish.

Um. With who, exactly, did W have a reputation as a "realist"? As near as I remember, in the Iraq context that word was mostly associated with the Scowcroft / Powell rump faction of Republicans, who were worried about Iraq turning into a mess. That worry has been proven to be truly realistic; I don't know how W could possibly lay claim to the label. The "private anguish" seems to imply an emotional depth not all all evident to casual observers, but that's another story.

Somewhat more seriously, there's Will apologizing for Rumsfeld:

The book's central figure, however, is not Bush, whose lack of inquisitiveness is a defect, but Rumsfeld, whose abrasive inquisitiveness is supposedly a defect. The prologue begins with Rumsfeld's selection as defense secretary. The 45th and final chapter contains much about Bush but revolves around an interview with Rumsfeld.

The book actually includes one heartening story that should enhance Rumsfeld's reputation. On Veterans Day 2005, the president traveled to a Pennsylvania Army depot to deliver a speech announcing the new military policy for Iraq, the policy of "clear, hold and build." Woodward says Rumsfeld, having read the speech, called Andy Card, the White House chief of staff, a half-hour before Bush was to deliver it, and said, "Take that out." Card replied that the three words were the centerpiece of the speech, not to mention the war strategy. Rumsfeld replied, "Clear, we're doing. It's up to the Iraqis to hold. And the State Department's got to work with somebody on the build."

At last, a division of labor that uses the U.S. military only for properly military purposes and assigns responsibilities in a way that will force Iraq's government to grow up. In the name of counterinsurgency, there has been too much of what today's military argot calls "full-spectrum operations" -- operations that go beyond killing insurgents to building schools, connecting sewers and other civil projects that keep the training wheels on the Iraqi government's bicycle and keep the United States chasing the chimera of "nation-building."


That's well and good, but also pretty ironic considering what was going on before the war in terms of post-war planning. This is covered extensively in theatlantic.com , a favorite review of mine, but specifically on what Rummy's trying to pin on State, I got a short pithy quote and a longer, more damning one. The Army Brass, at least, seemed to know what Rummy was leading them into:

The longer-term problem involved what would happen after Baghdad fell, as it inevitably would. This was distinctly an Army rather than a general military concern. "Where's the Air Force now?" an Army officer asked rhetorically last fall. "They're back on their bases—and they're better off, since they don't need to patrol the 'no-fly' zones [in northern and southern Iraq, which U.S. warplanes had patrolled since the end of the Gulf War]. The Navy's gone, and most of the Marines have been pulled back. It's the Army holding the sack of shit."

As for State, NGOs, the international community and all that, Rummy couldn't be bothered before the war, so it's pretty dubious (although not unexpected) for him to try to pin things on them now, in true W "personal responsibility" fashion:

On January 19 Gardiner presented his net assessment, with information about Iraq's water, sewage, and public-health systems as well as its electrical grid, at an unclassified forum held by the RAND Corporation, in Washington. Two days later he presented it privately to Zalmay Khalilzad. Khalilzad was a former RAND analyst who had joined the Bush Administration's National Security Council and before the war was named the President's "special envoy and ambassador-at-large for Free Iraqis." (He has recently become the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan.) Gardiner told me recently that Khalilzad was sobered by what he heard, and gave Gardiner a list of other people in the government who should certainly be shown the assessment. In the next few weeks Gardiner presented his findings to Bear McConnell, the USAID official in charge of foreign disaster relief, and Michael Dunn, an Air Force general who had once been Gardiner's student and worked with the Joint Chiefs of Staff as acting director for strategic plans and policy. A scheduled briefing with Joseph Collins, who was becoming the Pentagon's point man for postwar planning, was canceled at the last minute, after a description of Gardiner's report appeared in Inside the Pentagon, an influential newsletter.

The closer the nation came to war, the more the Administration seemed to view people like Gardiner as virtual Frenchmen—that is, softies who would always find some excuse to oppose the war. In one sense they were right. "It became clear that what I was really arguing was that we had to delay the war," Gardiner told me. "I was saying, 'We aren't ready, and in just six or eight weeks there is no way to get ready for everything we need to do.'" (The first bombs fell on Baghdad eight weeks after Gardiner's meeting with Khalilzad.) "Everyone was very interested and very polite and said I should talk to other people," Gardiner said. "But they had that 'Stalingrad stare'—people who had been doing stuff under pressure for too long and hadn't had enough sleep. You want to shake them and say, 'Are you really with me?'"

A t the regular meeting of the Iraq Working Group on January 29, the NGO representatives discussed a recent piece of vital news. The Administration had chosen a leader for all postwar efforts in Iraq: Jay M. Garner, a retired three-star Army general who had worked successfully with the Kurds at the end of the Gulf War. The NGO representatives had no fault to find with the choice of Garner, but they were concerned, because his organization would be a subunit of the Pentagon rather than an independent operation or part of a civilian agency. "We had been pushing constantly to have reconstruction authority based in the State Department," Joel Charny told me. He and his colleagues were told by Wendy Chamberlin, a former ambassador to Pakistan who had become USAID's assistant administrator for the area including Iraq, that the NGOs should view Garner's appointment as a victory. After all, Garner was a civilian, and his office would draw representatives from across the government. "We said, 'C'mon, Wendy, his office is in the Pentagon!'" Charny says. Jim Bishop, a former U.S. ambassador who now works for InterAction, pointed out that the NGOs, like the U.S. government, were still hoping that other governments might help to fund humanitarian efforts. Bishop asked rhetorically, "Who from the international community is going to fund reconstruction run through the Pentagon?"