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Technology Stocks : Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: i-node who wrote (5263)	10/5/2006 10:49:15 AM
From: pcstel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8420

Are you still claiming XM has only a 10% chance of making 7.7M subs by year end? That was my viewpoint some weeks ago, and that is still my OPINION! Unless of course, XM changes the way they calculate CHURN by adding on another 30 days or some amount to the point when they calculate the conversion rate. The interesting thing to point out here. Is we are talking about attempting to hit "THE VERY BOTTOM END OF THEIR GUIDENCE" So XM went from 9M Y/E guidence to 7.7 million Y/E guidence in a very short period of time. This should clue you on the complete lack of visibility they are operating under. In Q4, XM is scheduled to lose 635,000 "subscribers" (both Promo and non-Promo). To reach 7.7 million, they must add ~500,000 Net Adds, or ~1.13 million Gross Adds. Or 12,555 Gross Adds per day. Which equates to the concept that every Gross Add unitl the 3rd week in November will go to replace one that deactivates. That's right, on average 7,055 "subscribers" deactivate EVERY DAY. "What kind of odds are you giving on Sirius making 6.3M (given they pulled out all the stops, giving away free receivers to any existing subscriber for a family plan subscription, and still couldn't make their Q3 #s)?" I'll also give them a 10% chance. If Sirius makes its guidance in Q4, they will lose close to, perhaps more than, than 1.3 Billion. Works for me! And so it goes, PCSTEL