Raja -- trotsky, 16:56:16 10/06/06 Fri
i agree with your characterization. in fact, this is what ski himself says in his latest publicly posted piece, namely that he thinks the long term bull market has further to go, but since one of his major 'indices' has given a sell signal, he's expecting the current downturn to continue.
it remains to be seen how quickly he reverses this stance in case the market begins to rise from here. as i said before, my impression is that the system is very good at catching turning points in trending markets, but is prone to suffering from too much 'noise' in trading ranges. right now, we're still in a trading range, in spite of the recent downside bias.
Hambone@ski -- trotsky, 16:47:09 10/06/06 Fri
in your eagerness to be right at all costs, you are simply not listening. i KNOW for a fact what his calls were. it doesn't matter what you post - i don't need to 'infer' anything.
how many times do i have to hint at having subscribed? i have an overview of his calls, in writing. and i looked at his past calls on the web site. so again, he caught every MAJOR market move since the spring of '04, and several minor ones as well -some with remarkable timing accuracy, i.e. not too far from the respective major highs/lows. he did make a few calls that looked 'bad' at first, but those were reversed very quickly.
he is at present, a 'hot hand'. i'm not making any assertions about this continuing, but if people believe that he has value as a contrary indicator at this time, they are mistaken.
frustrated@rising wages -- trotsky, 16:30:44 10/06/06 Fri
this is one of the worst indicators to pin policy on. it is severely lagging. in the last cycle, wage growth crested in March of 2001, by which time the recession was already well underway.
@Hendry's $450 correction target -- trotsky, 15:43:53 10/06/06 Fri
this target makes sense if the so-called 'mid cycle correction' phase has begun. unfortunately we won't know for sure UNTIL the triangle resolves one way or the other.
the 1970's mid cycle correction took gold from $200 to $106 within about 18 months.
however, that $200 high was $165 or roughly 370% above the bull market's starting point.
HK@Osama in China -- trotsky, 15:31:07 10/06/06 Fri
i've considered this possibility ever since a Bulgarian businessman who claimed to have been invited to a pow-wow with Osama said that his GPS told him the meeting was actually on Chinese soil. the eastern region of China is home to a large Muslim minority, the Uighurs. 'good Muslims' according to Flash (the Horowitzian hound that pestered the old kitco board). it's not totally out of the question - as you said, that would be a perfect hideout.
Hambone@ski -- trotsky, 15:23:24 10/06/06 Fri
when i talked about the high, i talked about the MAY high. THAT was the correct call from the high i referred to. he was bullish for exactly one day after the XAU made its top, and one day later he moved out.
and apparently you didn't read what i wrote. i'll say it again: in order to review ALL the calls, you have to subscribe. so i'm not inferring anything from what was publicly posted. i repeat: i reviewed ALL his calls made since 2004, and those were above average. not catching absolute highs or lows, but certainly good enough to catch the bulk of every major move since then.
PS: i resent your saying that there was anything disingenuous about that claim. i have no ulterior reasons whatsoever to defend Ski. all i'm saying is: don't think he can be used as a contrary indicator (i said that to mugwump, originally, as he implied that this should be applied to ski).
mudturtle@housing bust -- trotsky, 15:04:48 10/06/06 Fri
in fact, the anecdotal evidence paints an even bleaker picture than the official statistics - and housing cycles tend to have a lot of inertia, i.e. once a trend begins, it takes a long time to turn around again.
@HMY -- trotsky, 14:10:58 10/06/06 Fri
i should specify - THE senior producer stock to hold here. there are a number of juniors that i find even more attractive, with all the usual caveats (for instance, if Hendry is right and we get a move to $450, you'll get to buy everything at half of today's prices).
it's all with the proviso that the recent melt will be halted, and preferably repaired.
@gold's long term price target -- trotsky, 13:51:01 10/06/06 Fri
i worked out once that if the current gold bull market advance makes the same percentage gain as the 70's bull market, gold would have to go to roughly $6,400/oz.
that sounds crazy, but in 1970, at $35, $850 sounded just as crazy.
Hugh Hendry just said on the fund manager's panel his target is $6,500 - how did he arrive at that? this is the price level at which the cumulative liabilities of the US treasury roughly are in balance with its only 'real' asset, namely the 261m. oz. of gold it holds.
a little caveat: Hendry also thinks we will correct back to $450 here.
Carmack@HMY -- trotsky, 13:35:13 10/06/06 Fri
i suppose you're still holding it - my 2c:
HMY is THE gold stock to hold here. a bona fide turnaround story this year with the high Rand PoG, and a growth story over the coming two years. it has a great many large projects in the pipeline, every single one of which could in theory be listed as a mid tier mining firm in its own right.
lastly, i expect 'corporate action' from HMY. they are actively looking at ways to unlock what there is in terms of hidden value.
Hambone@ski -- trotsky, 13:31:18 10/06/06 Fri
1. i currently disagree with him - for reasons stated many times, regarding the current situation. i merely tried to point out that using him as a contrary indicator on account of his allegedly bad calls in the past flies in the face of the (recent) facts. over the past two years, his calls were way above average.
2. in order to review ALL the calls you do need to subscribe to his service. they are not all publicly posted.
3. i reiterate, imo the SKI system (it is more than just moving averages btw. - it includes shorter term observations regaring 'run patterns' and the like) seems at its most useful in trending markets. it is far less reliable during corrective trading range markets, such as the one we're in now.
4. you are right, SKI didn't admit it was a bull market during the first few years. i myself debated him on kitco regarding this point. this was shortly before he ceased posting there - apparently got too much flak at the time. i note also, his system DID make a number of bad calls during the first 2-3 years of the bull market, especially in the correction periods. |
