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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (72808)	10/5/2006 1:27:17 PM
From: CommanderCricket	Respond to of 206179

Greenie, I don't OPEC is revelant anymore either. If you've the capacity, you pump, if not - don't. Simple as that. CC

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (72808)	10/5/2006 1:32:05 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206179

Spellchecker and calculator needed. OPEC may be irrelevAnt on the downside, and I think they are, but they are very relevAnt on the upside of oil prices. The marginal production they can take off the markets any time could send the price of oil to $100 a barrel in a few hours. You have some credibility now; don't throw it away.

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (72808)	10/5/2006 3:10:26 PM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206179

>>>IS OPEC RELEVENT?<<< I am not quite sure where you are going there. I believe that OPEC is irrelevant because they are all maxed out, and probably in decline. The only question for them is do they cut more to drive the price to $100, or be happy with the market around $60. With little or no spare capacity, there is no potential for an increase by any single member to take market share from another. The Texas RRC used to keep a lid on production in the US until about 1970. With the US peaking, it was no longer needed. Stated differently, you will not see OPEC members driving the price down as they have in the past. Ronald Reagan is widely credited for sinking the Soviet Union through economic warfare. One ploy was to get Saudi to over produce so that the inept Russians could not sell on the world market for hard currency at a price greater than their production cost. Things like that won't happen any more. Hugo knows it. Perhaps you are suggesting that OPEC is no longer a force because of internal infighting. That certainly happened in the past. However they did an exemplary job in late '98 and early '99 of coordination to limit production when crude had dropped to $10. Of course they were hard up against a wall and it was cooperate or else.

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (72808)	10/5/2006 10:15:57 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 206179

Greenie, OPEC succeeded in controlling oil prices pretty well in '03 - '04, when excess supplies resulted in 3 OPEC quota cuts. There is a great graph of the price of oil vs. OPEC quota cuts in the last 3 years in the latest RJ stat of the week. Speaking of which, RJ makes an interesting case in that piece for why they think OPEC will support a higher floor for oil prices now, viz.: "Weakness in the U.S. dollar helps explain why OPEC is inclined to defend a high price floor for oil. Since the U.S. dollar peaked over four years ago, it has fallen dramatically against almost every other major currency. Against the euro, for example, the dollar is down 42% since January 2002. This decline in the dollar has two very important consequences for OPEC members, both of which support a higher price floor. First, it means that most non-dollar denominated consumers are not being nearly as affected by record oil prices as U.S. consumers. (Remember, one of OPEC’s main concerns is oil demand destruction.) Secondly, it means that OPEC countries cannot buy as many goods and services from non-dollar denominated countries. And because most of OPEC’s imports (about 90% for Saudi Arabia, for instance) come from outside the U.S., this is a key observation, not a peripheral point."