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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (4850)	10/7/2006 12:14:54 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24230

Pondering a future after oil peaks Two Orange County supervisors discuss whether local government has a role to play. By ANDREW GALVIN The Orange County Register LOS ANGELES – Two members of Orange County's Board of Supervisors were among a roomful of elected officials from across Southern California who heard a presentation Thursday about the prospects for dwindling world production of crude oil. Supervisors Chris Norby and Lou Correa heard Robert Kaufmann, a professor at Boston University and director of its Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, explain that global oil production could peak sometime between 2014 and 2032. Within 15 years after the peak, the world will need alternative energy supplies equivalent to the oil produced annually by Saudi Arabia, or about 10 million barrels a day, Kaufmann said. Left to itself, the free market might not deliver those alternatives in time, Kaufmann said. Kaufmann spoke in Los Angeles to a meeting of the Southern California Association of Governments, a metropolitan planning organization that encompasses six counties. The question before the group was whether local governments have a role to play in preparing for an eventual transition to non-carbon fuel sources. Norby said he didn't think so. "It's very speculative," he said of Kaufmann's prediction that oil output will decline in coming decades. "I think the market mechanism, if it does happen, will force people to adjust just as we've done in the past." Correa was more open to the idea of a role for county government. He said part of that role would be to provide information to constituents so that they can "make informed decisions." Correa pointed to the Orange County Transportation Authority's move to natural gas-powered buses and a plan to build a cogeneration plant to provide electricity for Santa Ana's Civic Center as examples of the county taking steps to grapple with a changing energy situation. Federal and state governments can provide incentives to help foster a market for alternative energy sources, he said. Whether the county should also provide such incentives is "an issue for the county to discuss," he said. Debbie Cook, a Huntington Beach councilwoman who helped arrange Kaufmann's visit, said SCAG is taking note of the changing energy picture as it revises its regional comprehensive plan. In the past, "we've always assumed that cheap energy would be there," Cook said. The challenge today is "forecasting based on higher energy costs," rather than just "how much growth we expect." Not everyone agrees with Kaufmann's prediction that oil production will begin to decline in coming decades. Some economists and oil industry officials say there is plenty of oil in the ground, such as in shales in Colorado and sands in Alberta. The question, these people say, is whether exploiting such oil deposits makes economic sense. As oil prices rise, there is more incentive for companies to develop these more-difficult-to-reach reserves, they say. Kaufmann made the case that while the world won't run out of oil, countries that export oil will find it isn't in their interest to increase production because a resulting decline in price would reduce their revenues. Exploiting the Artic National Wildlife Refuge isn't a solution, because it would produce less than 2 million barrels a day, or less than 10 percent of current U.S. demand, and its output would begin falling after 20 or so years, he said. ocregister.com