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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Aloha who wrote (22418)	10/6/2006 12:39:28 PM
From: loantech	Respond to of 78417

All of Jason's flock of sheep are jumping ship! <g> Heinz of past SI fame is bullish on gold anyhow: @the dollar -- trotsky, 10:52:01 10/06/06 Fri why should the dollar be strong? it can be shown by overlaying a chart of the FF rate with a DXY chart. the dollar historically tends to peak 6-9 months AFTER a Fed rate hike campaign ends. as an aside, i don't share Lord Jim's idea that the dollar is the only determinant of where gold is going to go - iow, the dollar's relationship to other fiat currencies should not be able to stop a gold bull market. i think Hoye has the right idea about that - dollar and gold strength can co-exist - it all depends on the circumstances. @gold contract -- trotsky, 10:36:25 10/06/06 Fri unless it reverses down again and breaks this morning's lows, then this was indeed an Ordian retest of the low. that in turn would be very bullish short term. @gold contract -- trotsky, 10:17:24 10/06/06 Fri an Ordian re-test of the low on lower volume? so far that's what it looks like. @the dollar -- trotsky, 09:54:22 10/06/06 Fri the dollar is bought in reaction to a weak employment report - this is the type of incongruence that is usually bullish. iow, it's a dollar bullish event. it's as Grandich said, 'the only party that doesn't know that the dollar is dead is the dollar'. @gold chart -- trotsky, 09:28:19 10/06/06 Fri we are still inside the triangle (i.e., above its lower boundary) - note in this context that a drop BELOW the lower boundary remains a distinct possibility. if such a drop happens, it must reverse almost immediately to keep a medium term bullish outlook alive. this triangle looks very similar to the 70's triangles as mentioned earlier - however, this does not mean that the ultimate outcome after it ends is a certainty. after all, the market ALSO formed a triangle after the 1980 top, and the outcome was less than benign. @jobs report, pt.2 -- trotsky, 08:49:05 10/06/06 Fri my guess is that the consumer recession has already begun - and that means the point in time when the yield curve reverts from inversion to steepening isn't far off. this is bad for all sorts of financial as well as hard assets that have been favored by speculators recently, such as stocks and commodities. it tends to be good news for bonds and gold however (gold is luckily not only a commodity). note that leading economic indicators have recently begun to slip-slide away, in spite of the stock market's strength. PMI's are one or two bad months away from entering negative territory.