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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: UncleBigs who wrote (71215)10/6/2006 3:56:45 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
<True. This is because consumers are temporarily living above their means. Once consumers are forced to live within their means, the current account deficit will decline. How is that inflationary?>

Sorry -- that is baloney. There is no evidence that our impending poverty will lead to a lower current account deficit. Imports are cheaper for the most part than domestic production -- we will likely buy more, not less. And the current account deficit includes the cost of servicing foreign debt -- and that will soar as the economy slow.



To: UncleBigs who wrote (71215)10/6/2006 3:58:00 PM
From: GST  Respond to of 110194
 
<A higher savings rate means less spending>

What higher savings rate are you talking about? We are so deep in debt that we will swim hard to stand still. There is nothing to indicate that we are going to become a nation of savers.



To: UncleBigs who wrote (71215)10/6/2006 3:59:54 PM
From: ild  Respond to of 110194
 
Uncle, thanx for very good post. What are you definitions for words "inflation" and "deflation" you used in it?

My take is that GST is arguing that the US has so many problems that the US governments will have to inflate them away. Your point is that we already have too much debt, so the debt deflation must come first.



To: UncleBigs who wrote (71215)10/6/2006 4:00:52 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
You make one huge wrong assumption: You assume that slower growth leads to lower prices. It does not work that way in an import oriented economy with huge debts and no savings. INstead, when economies with this profile stumble and slow, they experience and economic crisis of inflation and the severe devaluation of their currency amidst soaring interest rates. There is no way around this.