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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack of All Trades who wrote (71259)	10/7/2006 2:05:24 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

All you need to do to talk about isolated price movements is talk about price movements -- to talk about all prices taken as a whole over anything more than a few years is a minimum for initiating speculation over deflation. This is not mere semantics -- you will indeed position yourself very differently if you truly believe we are in the midst of a radical sea change from a persistent long term trend towards rising prices and into a persistent long term trend towards falling prices -- taking all prices as your benchmark. There is zero reason to believe this sea change is taking place and zero reason to believe it is likely to happen. The likelihood of a recession or the likelihood of falling real estate prices, etc. might be vey high indeed -- but not deflation. For deflation to take hold there would have to be some truly bizzare and extreme reversal of normal relationships.