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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J_Locke who wrote (71475)	10/9/2006 10:57:41 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Very nice. Thanx for posting.

To: J_Locke who wrote (71475)	10/9/2006 11:40:29 AM
From: gregor_us	Respond to of 110194

Kunstler is Incorrect that Global Oil Production is Tracking at 84 Mb/day in 2006. Global Oil Production has been tracking higher, much closer to 85 Mb/day so far, in 2006. He is also incorrect that December of 2005 is now "in the bag" as the peak production month. Actually, it appears it's going to be Q1 2006, that is shaping up to be the peak quarter of global production. It's important to put all of this in context however, and note that as the months roll along, both the EIA and IEA have differing monthly totals. In addition, some observers concentrate exclusively on crude oil only, which can be broken out from "other petroleum liquids." Based on my own exhaustive and boring hours with the data, both from EIA and IEA, and seeing how others treat this data, in places like The Oil Drum, I have concluded the following: 1. the supply response from OPEC to escalating prices was very strong for 2+ years going into Q4 2004, and then, since that time, OPEC production has essentially flattened out now for nearly 8 quarters. OPEC has flattened out essentially because of S.A., which has been stuck between 9.0 and 9.5 Mb/day since even before Q4 2004. S.A. hit the wall in early Spring of 2004. So, S.A. is really the key driver of OPEC production, obviously. And, S.A. is the reason why OPEC has been flat for nearly 2 years now. Globally, however, non-OPEC was able to push past the drag caused by OPEC, and as I said Q1 2006 pushed past 85 Mb/day. Q4 2006 would have to come in much lower now, to pull the global average into the 84 Mb/day range. All my data comes from EIA and IEA, though I lean more on the IEA. There's so much data there it really doesn't make sense to try and post all the pages, though, the following single page is a good encapsulation. omrpublic.iea.org Let me just say about Kunstler, who I like very much, that he is essentially correct on the theme here. Gregor