To: C_Johnson who wrote (20833 ) 10/11/2006 1:52:12 AM From: etchmeister Read Replies (1) | Respond to Still no sign of me saying that Flash Memory is going to Crash.BUT 2 years ago Micron should have started to in increase capex for DRAM opposite to your wisdom 2 years ago... I think most people know that I view the memory business, Flash, DRAM, specialty or anything related, as a giant No-Limit Poker game. I've said this for years - probably 10 years now. If you are asking about whether or not I thought the market would be up this year I did and I also talked about a glut in the Flash market appearing in the middle of the year - that was around a year ago. Today a great proportion of the 300mm investment is going toward DRAM production so many are worried about over-supply. I am too. Next year I can see where DRAM production exceeds demand by about 5% (early in the year) to 10% (late in the year). As for revenue growth, I have not put any numbers to this but it is likely we will see pricing pressure - per usual. And, per your note, we will likely hear about yield issues given some of the technology transitions.
