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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Perspective who wrote (71596)	10/10/2006 9:09:52 PM
From: bart13	Respond to of 110194

Unfortunately, I'm in roughly the same boat as you on real estate. I'm also somewhat embarrassed to state that those real estate stages aren't mine - they were copied to my archives about two years ago (without a note on the source) before I had even thought about doing a web site, so I can't even attribute them to the proper source. I've seen full US real estate cycle lengths estimated at from 7 to 20 or so years. (from my site): Per the IMF's "World Economic Outlook" from April 2003, housing price corrections averaged 30% and last about 4 years. Plus, housing price busts were associated with more severe macroeconomic developments than stock market price busts, and also have larger wealth effects on consumption. "Housing price busts were associated with stronger and faster adverse effects on the banking system than equity price busts... All major banking crises in industrial countries during the postwar period coincided with housing price busts". This might be helpful too: members.shaw.ca