DRAM revenue growth is shaping up to be stronger than expected in 2006, with the per-megabit ASP for the memory declining by only 16% this year, a significant slowdown from 40% in 2005. Because of this, worldwide DRAM revenue growth will accelerate to 24% in 2006, up from iSuppli's previous forecast of 8%.
The upgrade in the DRAM forecast is accompanied by a downgrade of the NAND-flash memory outlook. A 60% decline in ASPs will blunt the impact of strong unit growth in NAND flash, resulting in revenue growth of only 17% for the year. The research firm had previously forecast 37.2% revenue growth for NAND in 2006.
I think this is a good example showing that you can be off quite a bit with regards to DRAM as well as to NAND flash - but nevertheless a combination of being wrong in both cases could still lead you to being correct looking at the big picture.
Besides "maturing" it just shows - at least to me - that semi demand is very diversified and G' chart shows it - the typical PC (DARM) cycle can not extrapolated.
Speaking of PC's:
Acer reports strong growth for September
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David Tzeng, Taipei; Rodney Chan, DigiTimes.com [Thursday 12 October 2006]
Acer posted NT$40.2 billion (US$1.2 billion) in consolidated revenues for September, up 21.6% on-year and 34.1% on-month. The revenues represent the second highest ever for the company.
The strong growth came after a few months of slow sales, which had prompted heavy selling of Acer shares on the Taiwan stock market. The price of Acer shares plunged to about NT$40 in August, from over NT$80 in April. It closed at NT$57.3 on October 11.
Acer's consolidated revenues for January through September totaled NT$251 billion, and the notebook vendor may need an average of NT$50 billion in consolidated revenues each month, for the rest of the year, if it is to achieve its NT$400 billion goal for 2006.
Acer: September 2005 - September 2006 revenues (NT$m)
Month
Sales
M/M
Y/Y
YTD
Y/Y
Sep-06
27,936
66.7%
27.1%
157,557
13.6%
Aug-06
16,755
17.8%
-9.4%
129,621
11.1%
Jul-06
14,227
-15.8%
-1.1%
112,866
15%
Jun-06
16,900
22.9%
13.1%
98,639
17.7%
May-06
13,750
4.7%
-5.5%
81,739
18.7%
Apr-06
13,135
-41.2%
-0.1%
67,989
25.2%
Mar-06
22,339
31.1%
41.1%
54,855
33.3%
Feb-06
17,034
10%
31.2%
32,515
28.4%
Jan-06
15,481
11.1%
25.5%
15,481
25.5%
Dec-05
13,934
-47.7%
25.2%
205,133
58%
Nov-05
26,635
2.8%
50.7%
191,199
61.1%
Oct-05
25,911
17.9%
59.7%
164,564
62.9%
Sep-05
21,978
18.8%
79%
138,652
63.5%
Source: TSE, compiled by DigiTimes, Oct 2006.
*Figures are not consolidated.
Acer: 2Q 2005 - 2Q 2006 income statement (NT$k)
Item
2Q-2006
1Q-2006
4Q-2005
3Q-2005
2Q-2005
NT$k
% of sales
NT$k
% of sales
NT$k
% of sales
NT$k
% of sales
NT$k
% of sales
Operating revenue
43,832,189
54,802,455
66,384,352
54,789,514
42,652,296
Gross profit (loss) from operations
1,638,261
2,284,471
2,443,793
2,295,794
1,808,733
Operating expenses
689,617
684,448
415,983
687,122
746,682
Operating income (loss)
971,580
1,602,323
2,095,803
1,591,147
1,029,189
Non-operating revenues and gains
1,227,626
1,719,020
1,468,042
Non-operating expenses and losses
698,367
982,847
65,055
Income from continuing operations before income tax
3,480,245
4,611,018
2,625,062
2,327,320
2,432,176
Net income (loss)
3,081,379
4,021,150
2,102,115
1,965,673
2,264,593
Fully-diluted earnings per share (NT$)
1.8
1
0.9
1
Source: TSE, compiled by DigiTimes, Oct 2006.
*Figures are not consolidated. |
