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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (71800)	10/12/2006 5:13:05 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 110194

<I expect to see a decline in credit and I more or less expect to follow the path of Japan.> I am critical of two things you do: 1. Remove prices from the definition of inflation and deflation. 2. Conjecture that we will follow the path of Japan despite the fact that Japan faced the exact opposite conditions we face (ie, Japan is an export oriented economy with a huge current account surplus and a very high savings rate). All I have been looking for is the logic underlying your assertions -- and so far it is nowhere to be found, except that by some mysterious route the US savings rate is going to go way up and the current account deficit is going to evaporate, sparing the US dollar from a painful devaluation as the economy slows. Barring these miracles, I see no logic to support your deflationary outlook. If you have no logic, just hunches or guesses -- well, ok, guess away. But when you say that you have addressed these issues many times, well that just does not fly.