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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (1255)	10/17/2006 9:33:41 AM
From: niek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 43392

2007 semiconductor sales growth will nearly match 2006, says preliminary forecast The Semiconductor Reporter October 16, 2006 NEW YORK -- Industry analyst Mike Cowan today provided a preview forecast for 2007 worldwide semiconductor revenue growth. The Cowan LRA Model featured in The Semiconductor Reporter will generate in its first "official" iteration in about three weeks following the release by the SIA of September sales figures. Currently, the model's five-quarter forecast goes out through the third quarter of 2007, and calls for the first three quarters to be up 7.8% compared to the first three quarters of 2006 -- using the model's forecast for 3Q06 and the actuals from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization for the first two quarters of 2006 (see Oct. 4 story). To generate a 2007 forecast preview, Cowan used the model's current forecast for September 2007 sales, $24.936 billion, as if it were an "actual" number, allowing the model's five-quarter forecast to encompass the fourth quarter of 2007. The result from the model is a "very healthy" preview forecast estimate for 4Q07, Cowan said -- sales of $71.951 billion. Combined with the other quarters in the forecast, this adds up to a $268.118 billion forecast for 2007, which is 8.35% above the $247.447 billion projected by the model for 2006 in this scenario (an 8.8% increase over 2005). In other words, in this preliminary view, overall global semiconductor revenue growth will be essentially the same in 2007 as it is in 2008 -- just a shade weaker. The preview assumes that the model's momentum indicator will read zero for the September data release at the beginning of next month, Cowan pointed out. The model does not predict what the momentum indicator will do, but on average, the indicator has been a little on the positive side this year so far. If that trend continues, the model's revenue forecast for the coming five quarters will likely get pushed up slightly. The current forecast from iSuppli Corp. calls for semiconductor sales to rise 7.8% this year and 10.0% in 2007. Gartner Inc.'s Dataquest business unit is forecasting 10.9% revenue growth this year and 9.4% growth in 2007. Both of these market research firms gather data on chip sales that is independent of the WSTS figures.