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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JF Quinnelly who wrote (71840)	10/13/2006 1:17:11 AM
From: bart13	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Of course Triffin (its an -in, not an -en at the end) was significant, but it didn't stop the Fed from printing pre 1971 well beyond the amount of gold "on hand". Bretton and Triffin, etc. were related to international valuation issues with the dollar, caused by the lack of relationship between gold and the US money supply. And that was my initial point days ago. The data I have on gold & the money supply between 1913 and 1933 shows a correlation of under .3. I know what sterilization is, and have for a long time - just a for what its worth. Yes of course the money supply contracted after the war, it was running at well over 15% Y/Y. It also went well below zero Y/Y rate of change in the 1920-21 period. The American banking system did an atrocious job of sterilization too - the CPI ran between 12% and 22% (average 16%) from 1917-1921, one of the very worst periods in US history and in the top three if memory serves. Yes, of course much of the money supply growth in the '20s was due to reckless bank credit expansion, but it actually peaked in Y/Y rate of change in 1926. M-1 Y/Y rate of change touched zero in early 1927, came up, and then went to and through zero in about April 1928, then went positive again for a short time in late 1929 before falling precipitously. M-3 Y/Y rate of growth peaked in about 1925 and generally downtrended until it bottomed in 1932-33. It broke through zero in early 1930. We could discuss for months things like "entirely due to the failure of small non-money center banks", but it would be virtually pointless. I do not attribute the cause anywhere near entirely to that failure however.

To: JF Quinnelly who wrote (71840)	10/13/2006 6:42:13 AM
From: Eddy Blinker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The collapse of the money supply happened from 1930-33, and was entirely due to the failure of small non-money center banks. It was an American phenomenon, and made the Great Depression worse in America than in the other major economies, whose banking systems weren't affected as our was. JF Quinnelly your statements correlate with my R & D results to the point that the failure of small non>money center banks was apparently influenced by short sellers operating in the agricultural sectors in the USA. And ever since, this phenomenon is used to explain to the inhabitants of Latin America for example, that it is their banking system, their financial failures, their corrupt ways of living into the day and on and on. Causing economic havoc. Your contribution is lauded. Kind Regards Eddy Blinker