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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Drygulch Dan who wrote (6763)	10/14/2006 3:31:23 AM
From: Drygulch Dan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26075

Tropical Depression Four-C Discussion Number 2 Statement as of 5:00 PM HST on October 13, 2006 During the day 04-c has turned more toward the northeast and maintained convection and a decent circulation. It appears that the convection is now more on the east side of the low level circulation. Dvorak fixes from the agencies range from 2.5 from hfo and SAB...to 2.0 from jtwc and 1.5 from KGWC. Since I havent seen any major changes in the overall presentation...will keep 04-c as a 30kt depression. No big changes in overall forecast reasoning. Model guidance continues to be very scattered...lending continued low confidence to this forecast. Most dynamical models pretty much keep 04-c stationary and very weak for the next 3 to 4 days. The NOGAPS then lifts the system northeast toward the islands early next week in response to a secondary upper level trough approching from the northwest. At this time such a solution does not appear plausible and is the outlier of all the guidance we have. GFDL wants to move it slowly southeast for the next 48hrs then speeds it up and moves it northeast but still south of the islands. Given that 04-c is in fact moving at this time...the best guess for the steering flow is roughly the 700-300mb level. Model guidance suggests the steering flow will be turning more westerly with time in the next 24 hours...meaning 04-c should continue in an easterly direction. Quite a rare occurrence for the central Pacific. Despite the approaching upper trough...dont see any evidence of deep southwest flow developing around 04-c to bring the system toward Hawaii...which is good news. It does appear that upper level windswill begin increasing...so expect shear to start working againstthe system. Still forecasting 04-c to dissipate later this weekend...after which time any low level remnants and moisture would get caught up in themore southerly flow which is expected and could bring increased rainfall chances to portions of the state early next week. Given the relative low confidence in the forecast and the complex situation developing across the central Pacific...persons across Hawaii should pay attention to later forecasts from cphc. Also refer to area forecast discussions from WFO Honolulu... afdhfo/fxhw60 phfo...for more information on expected weather across Hawaii from the upper trough this weekend and possible impacts from 04-c remnants early next week. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 14/0300z 14.5n 165.3w 30 kt 12hr VT 14/1200z 15.2n 164.2w 30 kt 24hr VT 15/0000z 16.0n 162.6w 30 kt 36hr VT 15/1200z 16.3n 160.7w 25 kt...dissipating 48hr VT 16/0000z...dissipated $$ forecaster Nash