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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (10108)	10/14/2006 2:28:39 PM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218318

The answer is "yes", and I believe the thinking may be that ... ... Japan will not go nuclear at all, because it has no strategic depth for a showdown (95% of industrial capacity is concentrated within 2 fireballs' circumference) that can only be against Russia, China, N.Korea and perhaps even S.Korea, and it can be blockaded into submission. What do they possibly have to gain by playing "Russian Roulette", so to speak, with possibilities of armageddon?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (10108)	10/15/2006 1:21:19 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218318

The UK has a similar strategic depth problem, they solved it with missle launching subamrines which can be far away, Of course, Canada is also a fall back position... Japan has the ability to develop an enormous nuclear 'sting' which could deter aggression by China or Russia. 15 + tons of plutonium goes pretty far. It would be more than enough to take out a large part of the North Korea hierarchy and their military capability. Would China or Russia then want to hit Japan ? If Taiwan is not worth Los Angeles, what's North Korea worth ? Japan is a major part of the value creation, consumption, and financing for Asia. I don't see China risking economic progress for the Hermit Kingdom. Russia is a different matter, but North Korea isn't enough of a client state to really matter. I don't think Japan would launch a first strike against North Korea. I think they are in a situation analangous to France in the 1950s, they realized that they could not count on the United States if the Soviets attacked. France built a capability to take out the major cities in Russia.