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Strategies & Market Trends : Contrarian Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: pcyhuang who wrote (515)10/16/2006 10:29:44 AM
From: Spekulatius  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 4080
 
regarding Yahoo -

Could you explain how to get to 500M$ quarterly operating cash flow? I see a free cash flows of around 200M$/quarter. Some folks include the cash generated by stock option exercises but conveniently neglect the cash consumed by stock repurchases.

Yahoo Japans stock prices has been falling rapidly and since it's still owned 80% by YHOO I wonder if the current stock prices really reflects the fundamentals if yahoo Japan. I don't think that YHOO could sell this stake in any case so any valuation except look through earnings is suspect. Still I think YHOO may not be a bad bet at those prices but personally i am going to wait for lower stock prices before jumping in.



To: pcyhuang who wrote (515)10/16/2006 9:50:05 PM
From: pcyhuang  Respond to of 4080
 
Business model of Yahoo Japan


• Yahoo Japan said it is looking to the sales of digital content, such as music and games as a bigger contributor than advertising to its cell phone service. Observers point to this business model as different from that of Yahoo’s main PC-based service, which earns most of its sales from advertising. Internet giants including Yahoo and Google are rolling out new services for mobile phones in Japan. Earlier, Google started a Japanese-language news service for mobile phones this week, ahead of other markets. According to the Digital Content Association of Japan, its market for digital content posted a 12 percent rise to 2.5 trillion yen ($21.2 billion) in 2005 from a year earlier, with about 15 percent coming from mobile phones. In six months, pageviews for Yahoo Japan's mobile services went up by 7.7 percent to 1.5 billion ($12.5 million) in September, outpacing the combined 0.5 percent gain for its PC and mobile sites. Yahoo Japan is working with Softbank Corp. to expand its mobile service.

Source: Financeasia.com

pcyhuang



To: pcyhuang who wrote (515)10/17/2006 1:56:51 AM
From: pcyhuang  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4080
 
YHOO -- 60 minute chart shows accumulation


Yahoo's 60 minute chart shows heavy accumulation on Oct. 17.

stockcharts.com

pcyhuang



To: pcyhuang who wrote (515)10/17/2006 4:46:27 AM
From: pcyhuang  Respond to of 4080
 
YHOO -- Latest S&P's Assessment


huangcapital.com

pcyhuang



To: pcyhuang who wrote (515)10/21/2006 8:06:37 PM
From: jaker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4080
 
I am Bullish on Gold unless we get a Fresh New Low

h1.ripway.com



To: pcyhuang who wrote (515)10/23/2006 5:04:22 AM
From: pcyhuang  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4080
 
Yahoo Japan Profit Rose 22%

Full Story: ca.news.finance.yahoo.com

TOKYO (Reuters) - Yahoo Japan Corp. , the country's most popular Web portal, said on Monday its latest quarterly profit rose 22 percent after attracting more stores to its online auction and shopping sites.

Group net income was 13.6 billion yen ($114.5 million) in the three months to September 30, from 11.14 billion yen a year ago. The company's estimated profit range was between 13.1 billion yen and 14.9 billion yen.

Yahoo Japan, 41-percent owned by telecoms conglomerate Softbank Corp. , has been boosting its efforts to add more online shops and video clips to compete against rivals such as Rakuten Inc. . America's Google Inc. , the world's biggest Web search, is also increasing its presence in Japan with new services such as news and searches for cellphones.

Tokyo-based Yahoo estimated net income in the current quarter will land within the range of 13.65 billion yen and 15.2 billion yen. It forecast sales of between 51.7 billion yen and 55.2 billion yen.

America's Yahoo Inc. , which owns a third of the Japan unit, said earlier this month its quarterly profit dropped 37 percent to $159 million on higher stock option costs and slowing advertisement sales.

Tokyo-based Yahoo Japan also said advertisement sales, which make up 40 percent of total revenue, were flat at 21.2 billion yen in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, because companies limited spending amid concern about rising oil prices and slowing stock markets.

In the second quarter, total sales rose 24.5 percent to 51.2 billion yen. The company had forecast a range of 51 billion yen and 54.9 billion yen.

The company said revenue at its business service segment, which does not include ad sales, rose 42 percent to 11.4 billion yen, helped by commissions from the increased number of shops at its online mall and auction service.

Yahoo Japan does not provide annual earnings forecasts.

pcyhuang



To: pcyhuang who wrote (515)10/27/2006 12:21:45 AM
From: pcyhuang  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4080
 
YHOO's Upgrade -- Banc of America


Full Story: online.barrons.com

WE INITIATE COVERAGE ON Yahoo with a Buy rating and a price target of $34. We believe the company's fundamentals, including high traffic and advertiser relationships, remain intact. We believe near-term upside potential outweighs the risk of further downside. We are also positive on the significant upside potential from search-monetization improvements.

While we applaud Yahoo's efforts to maintain search market share against Google through its social search efforts, we believe search-monetization improvements (including Project Panama, which will link online ads to search results) expected in first-quarter 2007 will be the most significant catalyst for the stock in the next six to 12 months.

During its third-quarter 2006 earnings call, Yahoo announced it had launched the front-end of its new search-advertising management application (phase two of Project Panama) and would begin migrating advertisers over to the new platform over the next two quarters. We view Yahoo's completion of phase two of Panama as a positive and believe that improvements to Yahoo's search-ad ranking technology (phase three) could drive significant upside in 2007.

Yahoo offers advertisers the ability to target its over 500 million world-wide audience using a variety of advertising formats, including search and display. As consumers spend an increasingly higher proportion of their time online with various forms of content, we expect advertisers to continue allocating a higher proportion of their ad budgets online, particularly in branded advertising.

While we expect search to continue its strong growth trajectory, we believe that branded advertising may surpass the rate of growth in search in the second half of 2007. Our forecasts call for a 21% 2005-to-2010 estimated compounded annual-growth rate (CAGR) for branded (based on CPM, or cost per thousand impressions) advertising versus a 20.1% CAGR for search over the same time frame. Yahoo will be well positioned to benefit from proliferation of online video content.

We believe that Yahoo's diverse mix of advertising options, including search, banner, and high-value rich media ads, provides a competitive advantage in attracting advertisers looking for integrated online campaigns (i.e., search and branded). Additionally, we believe Yahoo has the keys to success in place -- the audience, the Fortune 500 advertiser relationships and high-value content assets (Finance, Tech, Sports, Health and Autos) -- to meet a variety of brand advertiser needs.

Despite all the hype around YouTube and Google Video, Yahoo's mainstream and user-generated video offerings have made it the most popular video site in the U.S. in August 2006 according to Comscore Video Ratings report. Recent announcements and private market multiples lead us to believe that online video advertising may be ready for prime time due to higher broadband penetration, increasing availability of video content/inventory (both mainstream and user-generated), improved technology, and higher usage of online video content.

As top 100 advertisers move their budgets from TV to the Internet, we believe that online video offers them a compelling opportunity to leverage their existing TV creative assets to reach a large and highly engaged audience. In addition, we believe that advertisers are willing to pay higher CPMs for the measurability and accountability that online video advertising has to offer.


Positioned to benefit from continued Internet penetration and usage growth -- Yahoo reaches over half of the estimated one billion world-wide Internet users a month. As world-wide Internet penetration is expected to reach an estimated 1.8 billion users by 2010, we believe Yahoo remains well positioned to benefit from continued Internet penetration, given that it is particularly strong in the high-growth Asia-Pacific region. Unlike the U.S., user search preferences in emerging markets are relatively nonestablished, giving Yahoo the opportunity to gain search market share.

Our price target of $34 is derived using a 10-year discounted cash flow using an 11.5% cost of capital with a 6% perpetuity growth rate at a 9.1 times terminal earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda) multiple. The estimated growth rate for Ebitda is 31% from 2006 to 2009. The stock currently trades at 10 times 2007 Ebitda.

pcyhuang



To: pcyhuang who wrote (515)11/22/2006 9:33:19 PM
From: pcyhuang  Respond to of 4080
 
Yahoo's Internal Memo -- Interesting Read

Yahoo's SVP--Brad Garlinghouse' internal memo

Three and half years ago, I enthusiastically joined Yahoo! The magnitude of the opportunity was only matched by the magnitude of the assets. And an amazing team has been responsible for rebuilding Yahoo!

It has been a profound experience. I am fortunate to have been a part of dramatic change for the Company. And our successes speak for themselves. More users than ever, more engaging than ever and more profitable than ever!

I proudly bleed purple and, yellow everyday! And like so many people here, I love this company

But all is not well. Last Thursday the NY Times article was a blessing in the disguise of a painful public flogging. While it lacked accurate details, its conclusions rang true, and thus was a much needed wake up call. But also a call to action. A clear statement with which I, and far too many Yahooers, agreed. And thankfully a reminder. A reminder that the measure of any person is not in how many times he or she falls down - but rather the spirit and resolve used to get back up. The same is now true of our Company.

It is time for us to get back up.

I believe we must embrace our problems and challenges and that we must take decisive action. We have the opportunity - in fact the invitation - to send a strong, clear and powerful message to our shareholders and Wall Street, to our advertisers and our partners, to our employees (both current and future), and to our users. They are all begging for a signal that we recognize and understand our problems, and that we are charting a course for fundamental change, Our current course and speed simply will not get us there. Short-term band-aids will not get us there.

It is time for us to get back up and seize this invitation.

I imagine there is much discussion amongst the Company's senior most leadership around the challenges we face. At the risk of being redundant, I wanted to share my take on our current situation and offer a recommended path forward, an attempt to be part of the solution rather than part of the problem.

Recognizing Our Problems

We lack a focused, cohesive vision for our company. We want to do everything and be everything ?to everyone. We've known this for years, talk about it incessantly, but do nothing to fundamentally address it. We are scared to be left out. We are reactive instead of charting and unwavering course. We are separated into silos that far too frequently don't talk to each other. And when we do talk, it isn't to collaborate on a clearly focused strategy, but rather to argue and fight about ownership, strategies and tactics.

Our inclination and proclivity to repeatedly hire leaders from outside the company results in disparate visions of what winning looks like rather than a leadership team rallying around a single cohesive strategy.

I've heard our strategy described as spreading peanut butter across the myriad opportunities that continue to evolve in the online world. The result: a thin layer of investment spread across everything we do and thus we focus on nothing in particular.

I hate peanut butter. We all should.

We lack clarity of ownership and accountability. The most painful manifestation of this is the massive redundancy that exists throughout the organization. We now operate in an organizational structure ?admittedly created with the best of intentions ?that has become overly bureaucratic. For far too many employees, there is another person with dramatically similar and overlapping responsibilities. This slows us down and burdens the company with unnecessary costs.

Equally problematic, at what point in the organization does someone really OWN the success of their product or service or feature? Product, marketing, engineering, corporate strategy, financial operations?there are so many people in charge (or believe that they are in charge) that it? not clear if anyone is in charge. This forces decisions to be pushed up - rather than down. It forces decisions by committee or consensus and discourages the innovators from breaking the mold?thinking outside the box.

There is a reason why a centerfielder and a left fielder have clear areas of ownership. Pursuing die same ball repeatedly results in either collisions or dropped balls. Knowing that someone else is pursuing the ball and hoping to avoid that collision - we have become timid in our pursuit. Again, the ball drops.

We lack decisiveness. Combine a lack of focus with unclear ownership, and the result is that decisions are either not made or are made when it is already too late. Without a clear and focused vision, and without complete clarity of ownership, we lack a macro perspective to guide our decisions and visibility into who should make those decisions. We are repeatedly stymied by challenging and hairy decisions. We are held hostage by our analysis paralysis.

We end up with competing (or redundant) initiatives and synergistic opportunities living in the different silos of our company.

We have lost our passion to win. Far too many employees are honing it in, lacking the passion and commitment to be a part of the solution. We sit idly by while at all levels employees are enabled to hang around? Where is the accountability? Moreover, our compensation systems don't align to our overall success. Weak performers that have been around for years are rewarded. And many of our top performers aren't adequately recognized for their efforts.

As a result, the employees that we really need to stay (leaders, risk-takers, innovators, passionate) become discouraged and leave. Unfortunately many who opt to stay are not the ones who will lead us through the dramatic change that is needed.

Solving our Problems

We have awesome assets. Nearly every media and communications company is painfully jealous of our position. We have the largest audience, they are highly engaged and our brand is synonymous with the Internet.

If we get back up, embrace dramatic change, we will win.

I don't pretend there is only one path forward available to us. However, at a minimum, I want to be pad of the solution and thus have outlined a plan here that I believe can work. It is my strong belief that we need to act very quickly or risk going further down a slippery slope, The plan here is not perfect; it is, however, FAR better than no action at all.

There are three pillars to my plan:

1. Focus the vision.

2. Restore accountability and clarity of ownership.

3. Execute a radical reorganization.

1. Focus the vision

a) We need to boldly and definitively declare what we are and what we are not.

b) We need to exit (sell?) non core businesses and eliminate duplicative projects and businesses.

My belief is that the smoothly spread peanut butter needs to turn into a deliberately sculpted strategy ?that is narrowly focused.

We can't simply ask each BU to figure out what they should stop doing. The result will continue to be a non-cohesive strategy. The direction needs to come decisively from the top. We need to place our bets and not second guess. If we believe Media will maximize our ROI then let not be bashful about reducing our investment in other areas. We need to make the tough decisions, articulate them and stick with them ?acknowledging that some people (users / partners / employees) will not like it. Change is hard.

2. Restore accountability and clarity of ownership

a) Existing business owners must be held accountable for where we find ourselves today ?heads must roll,

b) We must thoughtfully create senior roles that have holistic accountability for a particular line of business (a variant of a GM structure that will work with Yahoo!? new focus)

c) We must redesign our performance and incentive systems.

I believe there are too many BU leaders who have gotten away with unacceptable results and worse ?unacceptable leadership. Too often they (we!) are the worst offenders of the problems outlined here. We must signal to both the employees and to our shareholders that we will hold these leaders (ourselves) accountable and implement change.

By building around a strong and unequivocal GM structure, we will not only empower those leaders, we will eliminate significant overhead throughout our multi-headed matrix. It must be very clear to everyone in the organization who is empowered to make a decision and ownership must be transparent. With that empowerment comes increased accountability ?leaders make decisions, the rest of the company supports those decisions, and the leaders ultimately live/die by the results of those decisions.

My view is that far too often our compensation and rewards are just spreading more peanut butter. We need to be much more aggressive about performance based compensation. This will only help accelerate our ability to weed out our lowest performers and better reward our hungry, motivated and productive employees.

3. Execute a radical reorganization

a) The current business unit structure must go away.

b) We must dramatically decentralize and eliminate as much of the matrix as possible.

c) We must reduce our headcount by 15-20%.

I emphatically believe we simply must eliminate the redundancies we have created and the first step in doing this is by restructuring our organization. We can be more efficient with fewer people and we can get more done, more quickly. We need to return more decision making to a new set of business units and their leadership. But we can? achieve this with baby step changes, We need to fundamentally rethink how we organize to win.

Independent of specific proposals of what this reorganization should look like, two key principles must be represented:

Blow up the matrix. Empower a new generation and model of General Managers to be true general managers. Product, marketing, user experience & design, engineering, business development & operations all report into a small number of focused General Managers. Leave no doubt as to where accountability lies.

Kill the redundancies. Align a set of new BU? so that they are not competing against each other. Search focuses on search. Social media aligns with community and communications. No competing owners for Video, Photos, etc. And Front Page becomes Switzerland. This will be a delicate exercise decentralization can create inefficiencies, but I believe we can find the right balance.

I love Yahoo! I am proud to admit that I bleed purple and yellow. I am ? proud to admit that I shaved a Y in the back of my head.

My motivation for this memo is the adamant belief that, as before, we have a tremendous opportunity ahead. I don? pretend that I have the only available answers, but we need to get the discussion going; change is needed and it is needed soon. We can be a stronger and faster company - a company with a clearer vision and clearer ownership and clearer accountability.

We may have fallen down, but the race is a marathon and not a sprint. I don? pretend that this will be easy. It will take courage, conviction, insight and tremendous commitment. I very much look forward to the challenge.

So let us get back up.

Catch the balls.

And stop eating peanut butter."

Full Story: clearstation.etrade.com

pcyhaung