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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: UncleBigs who wrote (72136)	10/16/2006 2:37:10 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 110194

what i described, where they only lose 60% of their value like QCOM, is what i consider a 95% BEST case scenario. meaning that in 100 parallel universes, only 5 of them contain a GOOG that loses no more than 60% of its peak value. what you describe, losing more like 88% to 90% of its value, is what i would consider a slightly worse than average scenario. so in 100 universes, maybe 65 do better and 35 do worse. i think the median (50/50) scenario is one like CSCO, where GOOG loses about 70-75% of its peak value in 7 years. in an even worse scenario, like JDSU, they would lose 98-99% of their value. that's about a 5% probability in my book.

To: UncleBigs who wrote (72136)	10/16/2006 2:43:29 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Google's user base has absolutely no loyalty to Google. If Giggles.com did search better, it's user base would shift to Giggles.com. i think Google is pretty sticky. already Answers.com is supposed to be better. but people go to Google. i think what is less sticky is the usurious advertising rates.

To: UncleBigs who wrote (72136)	10/16/2006 4:46:37 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 110194

Google does not have a defensible competitive position. It has critical mass, which is important to advertisers. Competition may develop which erodes that position, but right now for advertisers they are number one. I have a small business and I use GOOG's adwords program. I think it's awesome and heads and shoulders above YHOO's. I get all of the business I can handle from GOOG and have no desire to bother looking for other alternatives. That said, I would never buy the stock. I agree with Wyatt's QCOM analogy.