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To: Eric L who wrote (4269)	10/16/2006 6:05:26 PM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 9255

He's right about that. To achieve 115 million units they only need 29 million units in Q4. I don't see them failing to achieve that marker, but they'll need to blow it out to recover annual share to CY2005 level. Thinking optimistacally again, I think that that Q4 will see a 15% seasonal lift and if so that would mean Samsung will need 35 million units in Q4 to maintain share at the Q3 level. The last four years the highest 4th quarter sequential unit growth that Samsung has seen has been 4%. They seem to time their product introductions for the 3rd and 1st quarters. We'll see if the momentum of the Ultra Series can change that, but I'm not sure that I see 15% QoQ growth in the cards. It has been a long time since I have seen much compelling on the CDMA side from Samsung and the GSM market is going to see some killer competition in the 4th quarter. Motorola's move to shore up their CDMA offerings couldnt be much better timed. Besides the LG Chocolate phone, neither of the Korean heavyweights have done much to try and stimulate sales in CDMA. Despite the fact that unit shipments were a record 30.7M (+15% YoY), and while ASP was healthy, handset revenue only increased 2% YoY. Faulkner mentioned this as well. I'm having trouble making sense of the numbers. Using the unit/ASP numbers, I get domestic handset revenue up 18% YoY in Korean Won and export revenue up 14.5% in dollars. It looks like the Won appreciated 7.5% or so in the last year, which should leave overall handset revenue up more than 2% YoY. I really hope Samsung goes back to having the CC at the same time as the earnings release. I hate only having half the details....and plus this damn earnings call is going to overlap with the Bears on MNF! Slacker