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To: Galirayo who wrote (137569)	10/17/2006 10:43:44 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

HI Ray, for years I've watched thr RUT and the MID. They generally seem to be very close. Just lately the Rut has been outperforming the midcap? I expected the mid cap to lead as big cap weredoing better. Are the small caps reasserting themselves or is the Midcap concentrated on a sector that is losing momentum. If anyone has a sector characterization label for the Midcap - I'd value their knowledge. TIA Bob

To: Galirayo who wrote (137569)	10/18/2006 8:45:00 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

My rule is to only pay attention to crossovers once the sto is above 80 or below 20. In the intermediate range I forecast the change in the sto. And when it is forecasted to decline I sell AH or BH or buy when it is forecasted to rise. I tested different rules for the overbought or oversold conditions. Not much difference between waiting for the sto to exit the zone or trading on a crossover. But even with your longer periods of MAs here we are getting lots of crossovers in the recent period and the sto below 80 BUT in fact the market remained overbought based on my derivative indicators in retrospect. It is OK if you can follow the market more or less full time and buy or sell as crossovers are about to happen in real time. My idea though in developing this system is to try to develop a system where I can still pay attention to my current job and just do trades at the end or beginning of the day based on forecasts. All the forecasting methods decline in utility in the OB or OS ranges for good statistical reasons.