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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Line Investment Survey -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcyhuang who wrote (171)	10/18/2006 5:16:37 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 219

The Value Line Survey currently contains exactly 100 different industry listings, composed of listed stocks within those categories. The Value Line Timeliness Ranking (as well as the Value Line Safety Ranking) are proprietary components of the Value Line Investment Survey. Both rankings apply only to the 1700 individual stocks where Value Line provides proprietary analyst coverage. Industries do not receive either timeliness or safety rankings. And rightly so. Within any given industry, not all companies are created equal. Therefore, not all company stocks are created equal. These inequalities make it impractical, nay impossible, to rank any given industry as "safe" or "timely". Besides that, neither ranking is a predictor of any given stock being bullish or bearish. The ranking is where the stock ranks relative to the ranking of the other 1700 stocks in the survey. What that means (among other things) is that a given stock that is ranked higher than another stock is "expected" to perform better (on the long side) than the lower ranked stock. Since the rankings tend to persist for quite a long period of time (say as little as one quarter to as long as a few years), the timeliness ranking is not a prediction that the stock will rise in price. In a bear market, it may be a predictor that the stock will decline less than other stocks. Maybe not. Everything is relative to the 1700 stocks within the survey. By design, 100 stocks will receive the top ranking of "1". Another 100 stocks will receive the next highest ranking of "2". The worst 100 stocks get a timeliness ranking of "5", and the next worst group is ranked "4". That leaves 1300 stocks that are not ranked "1", "2", "4" or "5". So, by definition, the remaining 1300 stocks default to a ranking of "3". Stocks move up or down in ranking over time depending upon such factors as their revenues & earnings as well as their guidance. However, a company can do really, really well and not have a ranking of "1" if 100 other companies in the survey do just as well (or better) and receive the "1" ranking. So, while doing well is important, it's just as important (if not more so) as to how well the other companies in the survey perform. Historically speaking, stocks ranked "1" and "2" have outperformed the market in general (over time). Stocks ranked "4" and "5" have underperformed the market (over time). For specific results and tracking, you can consult Hulbert's Financial Digest and/or the Value Line website. EK!!!

To: pcyhuang who wrote (171)	10/18/2006 4:36:53 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 219

Hi P, Re: Value Line "Timeliness" ranks for "industries"...... Yes, Value Line, starting on Page 25 of their Summary and Index section shows "Timely Stocks In Timely Industries." Most public libraries have copies of Value Line available. Check out the front section of VL and you'll find the Summary and Index Section. There's a number of useful screens inside from Page 25 back through Page 39. Currently they show the following as their top ten industries: 1) Cable TV 2) Semiconductor Equip. 3) Air Transport 4) Metals and Mining 5) Office Equip/Supplies 6) Semiconductors 7) Retail Stores 8) Electronics 9) Foreign Electronics (non-U.S.) 10) Electrical Equipment There's anywhere from a few to a dozen or so stocks listed in each of those industries shown as Timely. At the other end we have.... 97) Homebuilding 96) Water Utility 95) Food Wholesalers 94) Power 93) Toiletries/Cosmetics 92) Entertainment Tech 91) Manuf. Housing/RV 90) REITs 89) Tire and Rubber 88) Maritime Remember that their definition of "Timely" has a lot to do with Momentum, not necessarily Value. So, we need some caution from a contrary point of view of these stocks and industries. Picking from the least timely, say Manufactured Housing/RV might prove to be a good contrary play, for instance. Value Line's subscription price is rather rich. So, I use the Library for such references. Best regards, Tom