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Technology Stocks : Motorola (MOT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Hayman who wrote (2587)	10/18/2006 11:13:16 AM
From: tbancroft	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3436

Just from looking at charts, it appears that when Motorola stock price has a large gap from one day to the next, it establishes a new trend in the direction of the gap. In this case, it's a gap down, so a case could be made that it will probably be in an overall downtrend for the next three months or so. A very positive report for the fourth quarter could then change that trend (or not, it's the market, so you really never know.) <vbg>

To: John Hayman who wrote (2587)	10/18/2006 2:32:26 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3436

Mot in Q3 John, << Well, the numbers are out and MOT is down. Actually the numbers looked ok to me ... >> In many respects the numbers were good (especially Op Margin), but clearly MOT missed expectations that were built into the 5-Year high share price. I reacted to Moto's report last evening the same way I did to Nokia's last quarter (when Moto delivered exceptional results): i.e. Not bad ... but disappointing, none the less. It appears that Moto suffered share loss despite the fact they claimed they gained share, and the unanticipated ASP drop led to a sequential revenue drop. More on that here ... Message 22920839 << Will it be green by the end of the day, or has this price drop changed the trend? >> Doubtful it will be green by days end. A lot of what happens beyond that will depend on what Nokia reports before the bell (in the US) tomorrow morning. There's no question in my mind but that there is and ebb and flow of institutional (and to a lesser extent individual's) investment dollars based on the comparative results of the two's results quarter to quarter and it's a two-edged sword. Should Nokia results also disappoint, MOT's results will look more attractive. OTOH if NOK also disappoints, the sector could lose momentum because while handset sales are growing, the percentage growth has stalled somewhat -- below 20% YOY for the 1st quarter in recent memory. Personally I'm expecting a strong Q4, and I'm hoping sector momentum continues and actually accelerates. Best, - Eric -