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Politics : Sioux Nation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Karen Lawrence who wrote (83485)	10/18/2006 12:25:19 PM
From: Karen Lawrence	Respond to of 361689

bloomberg.com Santorum, Republicans Find Philadelphia Suburbs `Ground Zero' By Laura Litvan Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Philadelphia's prosperous suburbs are the site of a political showdown that may determine which party will emerge victorious from this year's midterm elections. The four counties outside the city -- Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware and Chester -- have the highest concentration of close congressional races in the nation. Three local Republican congressmen are locked in races rated ``toss-ups'' by the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report in Washington -- and that was before news that one of them, Representative Curt Weldon, is under investigation for allegedly steering lobbying contracts to his daughter. How residents of the counties vote Nov. 7 may also determine the fate of Senator Rick Santorum, the No. 3 Republican leader. ``If you're going to pick a ground zero in the 2006 elections, the Philadelphia suburbs are it,'' said Democratic strategist Paul Begala, who was an aide to former President Bill Clinton. ``If you see Democrats taking two of those three House seats, you're looking at a Democratic House.'' With Democrats needing a net gain of 15 seats to take control of the 435-member House and six seats to take over the 100-member Senate, political parties and interest groups are flooding the region with cash. In the first 15 days of October, the two national parties and interest groups such as the National Rifle Association and the League of Conservation Voters spent $6.4 million on the races for the three suburban Philadelphia seats, according to Federal Election Commission disclosures. That's almost one-sixth of the $38 million the parties and interest groups spent on House races nationwide. Dipping Below 50 Percent As recently as 1995, Republicans accounted for 59 percent of registered voters in the four counties. Many were white-collar workers who left the city for bucolic Bucks County or Main Line enclaves of multi-million-dollar homes. A boom over the last decade has brought in more independent and Democratic-leaning voters; by last year, Republican registration dipped below 50 percent for the first time since records began to be kept in the 1930s. Many of the newer arrivals are ``leaning Republican on economic issues, but liberal on social issues,'' said Michael Hagen, director of the Institute for Public Affairs at Temple University in Philadelphia. Alabama in the Middle The suburbs' importance as a swing region is magnified because the rest of the state is so clearly divided along party lines: The big cities are Democratic, while the central part of the state votes Republican. Democratic strategist James Carville once described the state politically as ``Philadelphia on one end, Pittsburgh on the other, with Alabama in the middle.'' Scott Reed, a Republican consultant who managed former Senator Bob Dole's presidential run in 1996, said, ``Republicans historically have to survive in the Philadelphia suburbs to win statewide.'' In the last decade, Republicans who carried them --including Senator Arlen Specter, former Governor Tom Ridge and, six years ago, Santorum -- all won. By contrast, President George W. Bush lost the suburbs, and the state, in both his races. Polls and interviews with voters in the Philadelphia suburbs suggest that, for many, Bush and his position on the Iraq war are the key issues. ``My party is in power and I think it's doing some irresponsible things,'' said George Vosburgh, 66, an educational consultant in Chester County who has decided he won't vote for any Republican candidate for national office on Nov. 7. The Bush Factor Eileen Arrow, a Bucks County office manager, said that while she plans to vote for Santorum and Fitzpatrick, she doubts they will be re-elected because of their identification with Bush. ``They're in trouble, and I think it's all about the war,'' said Arrow, 49, a registered Republican. ``People hate George Bush, so they hate anyone in his party.'' Republican strategists are concerned that many of their supporters who feel similarly simply won't show up to vote.